This paper extends SHORAH to better infer global haplotypes.
The work is a collaboration between Niko Beerenwinkel's group and Volker Roth's group. Roth is at the the U Basel computer science department. Other authors are Melanie Rey, Osvaldo Zagordi, Huldrych Günthard, and Karin Metzner.
the paper really isn't clear on how they move from local to global reconstruction.
They introduce the following soft constraint. If two reads are assigned to different local haplotypes (i.e. differ in their local window) then they must be assinged to different haplotypes at the global level. Such do-not-link constraints are incorporated into the prior distribution of the subequent class assignments
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Sugihara: Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series
Heard about this paper from a short bio of the author, Sugihara
He, along with Robert May, coauthored several papers on chaos theory and financial markets. This lead to him being given a huge pile of money by Deutsche Bank.
Robert May ended up as Baron of Oxford, among other honors.
This paper presents an approach for making short-term predictions about the trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems. The method is applied to data on measles, chickenpox, and marine phytoplankton populations, to show how apparent noise associated with deterministic chaos can be distinguished from sampling error and other sources of externally induced environmental noise.
He, along with Robert May, coauthored several papers on chaos theory and financial markets. This lead to him being given a huge pile of money by Deutsche Bank.
Robert May ended up as Baron of Oxford, among other honors.
This paper presents an approach for making short-term predictions about the trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems. The method is applied to data on measles, chickenpox, and marine phytoplankton populations, to show how apparent noise associated with deterministic chaos can be distinguished from sampling error and other sources of externally induced environmental noise.
Samantha Power on a complicated hero (2008)
Samantha Power's talk.
Starts out discussing the birth in the 21st century of the "save the people" movement, like early environmentalism but dedicated to ending genocide. This movement is mostly US-based, and largely on college campuses. She then segues into a hero of hers,
Sergio Vieira de Mello.
Sergio worked tirelessly to confront evildoeers.
Samantha Power started (?) as a journalist covering the Yugoslav Wars. She then attended Harvard Law School, where a paper she wrote on genocide turned into the book The Problem from Hell, is a survey of genocide. This got her named by Time Magazine as a top thinker. She then took a position working with Senator Obama on foreign policy. She continues to be active in his administration as the Senior Director for Multilateral Affairs, as well as holding a professorship.
Starts out discussing the birth in the 21st century of the "save the people" movement, like early environmentalism but dedicated to ending genocide. This movement is mostly US-based, and largely on college campuses. She then segues into a hero of hers,
Sergio Vieira de Mello.
Sergio worked tirelessly to confront evildoeers.
Samantha Power started (?) as a journalist covering the Yugoslav Wars. She then attended Harvard Law School, where a paper she wrote on genocide turned into the book The Problem from Hell, is a survey of genocide. This got her named by Time Magazine as a top thinker. She then took a position working with Senator Obama on foreign policy. She continues to be active in his administration as the Senior Director for Multilateral Affairs, as well as holding a professorship.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
cuevana
http://www.cuevana.tv/peliculas/mejorpuntuadas/
For movies. Requires a special plug-in. Not sure if I trust the plug-in
For movies. Requires a special plug-in. Not sure if I trust the plug-in
Immorality of debt
More inspiration for the paper I wish I had time to write on this!!
David Graeber interview
First comes gift-giving (which creates reciprical obligation). This becomes encoded in debt, which leads to money. Barter only comes later.
The old myth is that barter came first, then money. Rebuttal: "Think about what they’re saying here – basically: that a bunch of Neolithic farmers in a village somewhere will be engaging in transactions only through the spot trade."
David Graeber interview
First comes gift-giving (which creates reciprical obligation). This becomes encoded in debt, which leads to money. Barter only comes later.
The old myth is that barter came first, then money. Rebuttal: "Think about what they’re saying here – basically: that a bunch of Neolithic farmers in a village somewhere will be engaging in transactions only through the spot trade."
Sean Gourley on the mathematics of war
Sean Gourley
Dr. Gourley's team wrote a Nature paper defining how to measure an insurgency.
“Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency“
The size distributions of casualties both in whole wars from 1816 to 1980 and terrorist attacks have separately been shown to follow approximate power-law distributions6, 7, 9, 10. However, the possibility of universal patterns ranging across wars in the size distribution or timing of within-conflict events has barely been explored. Here we show that the sizes and timing of violent events within different insurgent conflicts exhibit remarkable similarities. We propose a unified model of human insurgency that reproduces these commonalities, and explains conflict-specific variations quantitatively in terms of underlying rules of engagement. Our model treats each insurgent population as an ecology of dynamically evolving, self-organized groups following common decision-making processes
See also http://mathematicsofwar.com/
I want to link his evolution of insurgency models to my own viral evolution work. He specifically discusses that when an insurgent group breaks up, the parts don't dissapear, they re-associate with remaining groups-- showing preferential attachment. Also, strongest groups grow fastest.
Dr. Gourley's team wrote a Nature paper defining how to measure an insurgency.
“Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency“
The size distributions of casualties both in whole wars from 1816 to 1980 and terrorist attacks have separately been shown to follow approximate power-law distributions6, 7, 9, 10. However, the possibility of universal patterns ranging across wars in the size distribution or timing of within-conflict events has barely been explored. Here we show that the sizes and timing of violent events within different insurgent conflicts exhibit remarkable similarities. We propose a unified model of human insurgency that reproduces these commonalities, and explains conflict-specific variations quantitatively in terms of underlying rules of engagement. Our model treats each insurgent population as an ecology of dynamically evolving, self-organized groups following common decision-making processes
See also http://mathematicsofwar.com/
I want to link his evolution of insurgency models to my own viral evolution work. He specifically discusses that when an insurgent group breaks up, the parts don't dissapear, they re-associate with remaining groups-- showing preferential attachment. Also, strongest groups grow fastest.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran's future
Bruce Bueno
Dr. de Mequita uses game theory to model all the parties in a negotiation and finds equilibrium points. He can thus predict, with high accuracy, what the eventual settlement will be based on known data at the start.
http://politics.as.nyu.edu/object/brucebuenodemesquita.html
Dr. de Mequita uses game theory to model all the parties in a negotiation and finds equilibrium points. He can thus predict, with high accuracy, what the eventual settlement will be based on known data at the start.
http://politics.as.nyu.edu/object/brucebuenodemesquita.html
PW Singer on military robots and the future of war
PW Singer
Robots are transforming war.
The US has a lead, but not a strong one. Robot building is still a DIY art with low barriers to entry.
Robots are transforming war.
The US has a lead, but not a strong one. Robot building is still a DIY art with low barriers to entry.
Parag Khanna maps the future of countries
Parag Khanna
Damn, TED is frustrating. Not easy to find the dates/conferences for talks. Just the title.
Parag draws maps which focus on infrastructure, not boundaries. Good infrastructure determines the balance of power and makes for good neighbors.
Example: Kurds would need good relations with their neighbors to be able to get their oil to a port so they could sell it.
Example: China is conquering the world. They have "invaded" Russia-- by moving farmers into Siberia, leasing the land. Etc. Chinese is becoming a language of power brokers.
Damn, TED is frustrating. Not easy to find the dates/conferences for talks. Just the title.
Parag draws maps which focus on infrastructure, not boundaries. Good infrastructure determines the balance of power and makes for good neighbors.
Example: Kurds would need good relations with their neighbors to be able to get their oil to a port so they could sell it.
Example: China is conquering the world. They have "invaded" Russia-- by moving farmers into Siberia, leasing the land. Etc. Chinese is becoming a language of power brokers.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Dean Kamen: The emotion behind invention
Dean Kamen talks about his motivation in building robotic arms/limbs for soldiers injured in war.
DEar Kamen
Very passionate. He sees the commitment that the soldiers have, and wants to repay it. As you see in the title, the talk is low on technology and high on helping people.
He wants to get it to the point where his arms are better than nature.
DEar Kamen
Very passionate. He sees the commitment that the soldiers have, and wants to repay it. As you see in the title, the talk is low on technology and high on helping people.
He wants to get it to the point where his arms are better than nature.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Quote from Ritholtz
I lifted it straight from his blog, because he phrased it so well:
source is here: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/waiting-for-the-cavalry/
The US is suffering from a long list of serious — but not unsolvable — problems that require intelligent, mature and potentially painful decisions
Can the US resolve these issues?
1) An excess credit problem, left over from the 2000s Housing boom and credit bubble — being solved v e r y s l o w l y through deleveraging and passage of time;
2) Slowing economy and high unemployment (including increasing High School drop out rates creating a structural employment problem);
3) Crumbling infrastructure: Electric Grid, Bridges, Tunnels, Roads, Naval Ports, Airports;
4) Medical Costs that are double the rest of the industrialized world’s yet produces worse results.
5) Systemic deficits caused by unfunded tax cuts, unfunded entitlements, and a military bigger than the next 20 countries combined, (plus a lack of fiscal discipline);
6) A wholly dysfunctional electoral process, including corporate control of what was once a democratically elected legislative branch;
7) Increasing wealth and income inequality (Historically not a long term positive for social unrest and political legitimacy)
8) An overt hostility to empiricism and science (which helped create most of our wealth) and an embracing of “magical thinking”
9) An intellectually bankrupt political class married to outmoded, disproven, fantasy based economic ideas.
Note that the last of these is directly responsible for much of the prior 8 problems.
We need to distinguish between immediate concerns — market crashes, unemployment, re-election — with the longer term structural problems facing the US.
The next 10 years can either be the end of the empire or a new healthier phase. The US has managed to reinvent itself every few generations. Its time for another such moment of reflection and redirection…
source is here: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/waiting-for-the-cavalry/
The US is suffering from a long list of serious — but not unsolvable — problems that require intelligent, mature and potentially painful decisions
Can the US resolve these issues?
1) An excess credit problem, left over from the 2000s Housing boom and credit bubble — being solved v e r y s l o w l y through deleveraging and passage of time;
2) Slowing economy and high unemployment (including increasing High School drop out rates creating a structural employment problem);
3) Crumbling infrastructure: Electric Grid, Bridges, Tunnels, Roads, Naval Ports, Airports;
4) Medical Costs that are double the rest of the industrialized world’s yet produces worse results.
5) Systemic deficits caused by unfunded tax cuts, unfunded entitlements, and a military bigger than the next 20 countries combined, (plus a lack of fiscal discipline);
6) A wholly dysfunctional electoral process, including corporate control of what was once a democratically elected legislative branch;
7) Increasing wealth and income inequality (Historically not a long term positive for social unrest and political legitimacy)
8) An overt hostility to empiricism and science (which helped create most of our wealth) and an embracing of “magical thinking”
9) An intellectually bankrupt political class married to outmoded, disproven, fantasy based economic ideas.
Note that the last of these is directly responsible for much of the prior 8 problems.
We need to distinguish between immediate concerns — market crashes, unemployment, re-election — with the longer term structural problems facing the US.
The next 10 years can either be the end of the empire or a new healthier phase. The US has managed to reinvent itself every few generations. Its time for another such moment of reflection and redirection…
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Protein Folding I Ching
Protein folds are divided into 7 families. Each protien will have several domains, each of which falls into one of these families.
http://scop.mrc-lmb.cam.ac.uk/scop/count.html#scop-1.75
Make an I Ching which uses two adjacent domains.
Blurb for the book/app:
DNA codes proteins. Protiens, then, determine everything with respect to life. This knowledge, while new to western science, is actually quite old. We recently found an ancient manuscript, from the
mountains, written in a Vedic script. Translation showed that it associated each combination of protein fold families with a particluar fortune. We are thus proud to present the Protein Folding I Ching.
http://scop.mrc-lmb.cam.ac.uk/scop/count.html#scop-1.75
Make an I Ching which uses two adjacent domains.
Blurb for the book/app:
DNA codes proteins. Protiens, then, determine everything with respect to life. This knowledge, while new to western science, is actually quite old. We recently found an ancient manuscript, from the
mountains, written in a Vedic script. Translation showed that it associated each combination of protein fold families with a particluar fortune. We are thus proud to present the Protein Folding I Ching.
HMM likelihood for haplotype reconstruction
Prabhav suggested using a HMM to describe the likelihood of an observed viral sequence. This allows for dependence between the states, and also for, i.e., increased probability of error after repeats.
Google: Utilitarian or media company?
Excerts from Ben Elowitz's article on CNN Money
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/24/google%E2%80%99s-nagging-media-problem/
Google built itself on utilitarianism-- provide a quick, clean route from question to answer. Google is wedded to the algorithm
Media is build on immersing people in a rich and rewarding environment to which they want to return, where they linger.
Value the human element, connection, experience.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/24/google%E2%80%99s-nagging-media-problem/
Google built itself on utilitarianism-- provide a quick, clean route from question to answer. Google is wedded to the algorithm
Media is build on immersing people in a rich and rewarding environment to which they want to return, where they linger.
Value the human element, connection, experience.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
tribal leadership
Another management consultant bullshit theory. Ok, the guy is serious, and has a good intuition, but in the end it is only one intuition and not the be-end all he presents it as. Social science.
So you have to have a hierarchy. Your clients are, of course, near the top, and you are going to help them reach the top. That is why they pay you the big bucks. No, wait, actually they are at the top, and you are confirming their place. THAT is why they pay you the big bucks.
Here we go, lowest to highest:
1) Life sucks
2) My life sucks (but other people have good lives)
3) I am great (and you are not)
4) We are great
5) Life is great. (only 2%, naturally)
Along with this comes the idea that people only hear messages directed at their level or an adjoining level. So you try to push everyone up a level.
So you have to have a hierarchy. Your clients are, of course, near the top, and you are going to help them reach the top. That is why they pay you the big bucks. No, wait, actually they are at the top, and you are confirming their place. THAT is why they pay you the big bucks.
Here we go, lowest to highest:
1) Life sucks
2) My life sucks (but other people have good lives)
3) I am great (and you are not)
4) We are great
5) Life is great. (only 2%, naturally)
Along with this comes the idea that people only hear messages directed at their level or an adjoining level. So you try to push everyone up a level.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Simon Sinek: How great leaders inspire action (TED 2009)
This guy has mastered the art of "repeat your thesis often enough and it becomes true". He says it at least one time with each example he gives, as though the example actually proves what he is saying.
So what is he saying? That an organization can be thought of as three concentric circles. The outside is what it does, the middle is how it does it, and the center is why. The thesis is that great leaders lead by communicating the why. This attracts like-minded individuals.
Apple-- "We challenge the status quo"
how do they do this? By building computers with an emphasis on design.
But it is the "why" which sets the company apart.
So what is he saying? That an organization can be thought of as three concentric circles. The outside is what it does, the middle is how it does it, and the center is why. The thesis is that great leaders lead by communicating the why. This attracts like-minded individuals.
Apple-- "We challenge the status quo"
how do they do this? By building computers with an emphasis on design.
But it is the "why" which sets the company apart.
Police states
Two interesting and related articles from the WSJ
As Criminal Laws Proliferate, More Are Ensnared
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703749504576172714184601654.html
the number of people sentenced to federal prison has risen nearly threefold over the past 30 years to 83,000 annually. The U.S. population grew only about 36% in that period. The total federal prison population, over 200,000, grew more than eightfold—twice the growth rate of the state prison population, now at 2 million, according the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics
Federal Asset Seizures Rise, Netting Innocent With Guilty
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903480904576512253265073870.html
Last year (2010), forfeiture programs confiscated homes, cars, boats and cash in more than 15,000 cases. The total take topped $2.5 billion, more than doubling in five years, Justice Department statistics show.
As Criminal Laws Proliferate, More Are Ensnared
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703749504576172714184601654.html
the number of people sentenced to federal prison has risen nearly threefold over the past 30 years to 83,000 annually. The U.S. population grew only about 36% in that period. The total federal prison population, over 200,000, grew more than eightfold—twice the growth rate of the state prison population, now at 2 million, according the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics
Federal Asset Seizures Rise, Netting Innocent With Guilty
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903480904576512253265073870.html
Last year (2010), forfeiture programs confiscated homes, cars, boats and cash in more than 15,000 cases. The total take topped $2.5 billion, more than doubling in five years, Justice Department statistics show.
Urban resiliance
My brother Mike brought this topic up; we have been email on how to measure this quantity for several weeks. My best conclusion was that cities are social constructs, so resiliance is best measured in terms of the community spirit of a place. As long as the spirit survives, the city will be rebuilt.
Turns out "urban resiliance" is its own scientific discipline, branching off from ecology (and specifically the study of ecosystem resiliance). Stockholm University has a center dedicated to the topic.
"Urban Transitions: on urban resilience and human-dominated ecosystems" by Ernstson et al (2010, AMBIO) had some interesting notes.
Cities exist as part of networks involving other cities, linked by dynamic social and technical networks that sustain energy, matter, and information transfer.
He suggests we continue our move from an industrial to a knowledge to an ecological economy. In the ecological economy, competiveness also lies in how effectively one uses/supports the generation of ecosystem services.
Another new buzzword: Panarchy, the title of a book by GUnderson and Holling (2002). A panarchy replaces a hierarchy by allowing the different processes to operate on different time scales. Interactions across these different time scales then become of interest
Looks like wikipedia gives it an older origin and broader meaning.
I should perhaps also read "Superlinear scaling for innovation in cities", Arbesman et al 2009 Physical Review E 79
Turns out "urban resiliance" is its own scientific discipline, branching off from ecology (and specifically the study of ecosystem resiliance). Stockholm University has a center dedicated to the topic.
"Urban Transitions: on urban resilience and human-dominated ecosystems" by Ernstson et al (2010, AMBIO) had some interesting notes.
Cities exist as part of networks involving other cities, linked by dynamic social and technical networks that sustain energy, matter, and information transfer.
He suggests we continue our move from an industrial to a knowledge to an ecological economy. In the ecological economy, competiveness also lies in how effectively one uses/supports the generation of ecosystem services.
Another new buzzword: Panarchy, the title of a book by GUnderson and Holling (2002). A panarchy replaces a hierarchy by allowing the different processes to operate on different time scales. Interactions across these different time scales then become of interest
Looks like wikipedia gives it an older origin and broader meaning.
I should perhaps also read "Superlinear scaling for innovation in cities", Arbesman et al 2009 Physical Review E 79
Gone with the wind
Maybe I should read this book. A great example of what happens when the world turns upside down, as it does every generation or so.
It was written by Margaret Mitchel in the roaring 20's, but not published until 1936. She herself had little belief in the work.
Ritholtz put up a summary of "Pander to Power by Frederick Sheehan, with the thesis that Greenspan sold out America to Wall Street.
Based on the summary, much of the book quotes from Gone with the Wind, applying Rhett Butler's advice to today's world.
Thesis: when the world turns over, there is no such thing as a risk-free investment, or the traditional pyramid of risk (cash, bonds, stocks, ...).
The Euro is falling. "Estimates of €1 trillion to save the Italian and Spanish banking systems are common, but, no one knows the side effects beforehand." Talk about money printing!
We face the possibility of European capital controls to stop people moving their money offshore. Too bad, as the Swiss Franc and gold look pretty attractive.
Regarding money transfers:
Rhett was not forthcoming: “I couldn’t give [you money] if I wanted to. I haven’t a cent on me. Not a dollar in Atlanta. I have some money, but not here. And I’m not saying where it is or how much. But if I tried to draw a draft on it, the Yankees would be on me like a duck on a June bug…”
It was written by Margaret Mitchel in the roaring 20's, but not published until 1936. She herself had little belief in the work.
Ritholtz put up a summary of "Pander to Power by Frederick Sheehan, with the thesis that Greenspan sold out America to Wall Street.
Based on the summary, much of the book quotes from Gone with the Wind, applying Rhett Butler's advice to today's world.
Thesis: when the world turns over, there is no such thing as a risk-free investment, or the traditional pyramid of risk (cash, bonds, stocks, ...).
The Euro is falling. "Estimates of €1 trillion to save the Italian and Spanish banking systems are common, but, no one knows the side effects beforehand." Talk about money printing!
We face the possibility of European capital controls to stop people moving their money offshore. Too bad, as the Swiss Franc and gold look pretty attractive.
Regarding money transfers:
Rhett was not forthcoming: “I couldn’t give [you money] if I wanted to. I haven’t a cent on me. Not a dollar in Atlanta. I have some money, but not here. And I’m not saying where it is or how much. But if I tried to draw a draft on it, the Yankees would be on me like a duck on a June bug…”
Nato alphabet
Alpha
Bravo! to Charlie, who is in a Delta shaped arena. The applause Echos as he dances the Foxtrot.
Afterwards, he takes his date, in his VW Golf, and drives to a Hotel (in India).
Her name is Juliett. She looks in the mirror, to she if she has lost a Kilo on the new Lima bean diet. It is all the rage, ever since Dr. Mike published it last November.
He won an Oscar for the infomercial. At the ceremony, he thanked his Pappa, back in Quebec. Pappa was also a bit of a Romeo, known throughout the Sierra for dancing Tango in a fancy Uniform, along with his buddy Victor, and drinking huge amounts of Canadian Whiskey as they X-rayed the Yankee girls.
ZULU
Bravo! to Charlie, who is in a Delta shaped arena. The applause Echos as he dances the Foxtrot.
Afterwards, he takes his date, in his VW Golf, and drives to a Hotel (in India).
Her name is Juliett. She looks in the mirror, to she if she has lost a Kilo on the new Lima bean diet. It is all the rage, ever since Dr. Mike published it last November.
He won an Oscar for the infomercial. At the ceremony, he thanked his Pappa, back in Quebec. Pappa was also a bit of a Romeo, known throughout the Sierra for dancing Tango in a fancy Uniform, along with his buddy Victor, and drinking huge amounts of Canadian Whiskey as they X-rayed the Yankee girls.
ZULU
Itay Talgam, "Lead like the great conductors", TED Global 2009
Leadership as telling stories.
But whose story? The composer's? the conductor's? the ochestra's? the audience's?
But the members of the ochestra are themselves highly trained and creative people. They have their own individual stories, both at this point in time, and their long-term development. Create space for them to tell their story.
Talk is here: Itay Talgam
But whose story? The composer's? the conductor's? the ochestra's? the audience's?
But the members of the ochestra are themselves highly trained and creative people. They have their own individual stories, both at this point in time, and their long-term development. Create space for them to tell their story.
Talk is here: Itay Talgam
Monday, August 22, 2011
Devdutt Pattanaik-- East vs West and the myths which mystify
Two Indian gods, brothers, decide to race around the world, three times. The first mounts his peacock, and soars over mountains, plains, and oceans, one time, two times, three times. The other walks around the yard three times, and says "I win".
"How can that be?" asks the first.
"Oh," says the second, "You went around the world, I went around my world."
Great story.
He then goes on to a confrontation between Alexander the Great and a Janist monk. Both think the other fools, Alexander for wanting to conquer the world (to what use? This is one life out of infinite, the striving only causes hurt), the monk for wasting a life doing nothing (to what use? This is one life, the only one, and you should use it to accomplish all that is possible).
Devdutt argues that both positions are relevant and equally valid. I call bullshit on that. Until many people have many and firm recollections of previous/future lives, it is a dangerously flawed assumption.
Oh, but it would be nice if we did. At the gym yesterday, Jeannot was watching Custer's last stand. I would have liked to have been there, to have experienced it. But not at the cost of my life, only if I could reincarnate away.
On the other hand, what would become of war if everyone thought there was no long-term downside, that the pain and death were temporary inconveniences in an infinite experience?
"How can that be?" asks the first.
"Oh," says the second, "You went around the world, I went around my world."
Great story.
He then goes on to a confrontation between Alexander the Great and a Janist monk. Both think the other fools, Alexander for wanting to conquer the world (to what use? This is one life out of infinite, the striving only causes hurt), the monk for wasting a life doing nothing (to what use? This is one life, the only one, and you should use it to accomplish all that is possible).
Devdutt argues that both positions are relevant and equally valid. I call bullshit on that. Until many people have many and firm recollections of previous/future lives, it is a dangerously flawed assumption.
Oh, but it would be nice if we did. At the gym yesterday, Jeannot was watching Custer's last stand. I would have liked to have been there, to have experienced it. But not at the cost of my life, only if I could reincarnate away.
On the other hand, what would become of war if everyone thought there was no long-term downside, that the pain and death were temporary inconveniences in an infinite experience?
Computer as an extension of the mind
If the computer is an extension of your mind, as it is, then it is an extension only of the left hemisphere.
Or is this true? It was in the early days, when computers were used by engineers to engineer things.
Then is a network of computers a society, a left-brain society?
And what about the great chatter that is facebook, youtube, etc?
On facebook, everyone is talking but few are listening. Conversations are one-way comments on feed items. The stream of conciousness of the human race.
Or at least the rich ones.
Or is this true? It was in the early days, when computers were used by engineers to engineer things.
Then is a network of computers a society, a left-brain society?
And what about the great chatter that is facebook, youtube, etc?
On facebook, everyone is talking but few are listening. Conversations are one-way comments on feed items. The stream of conciousness of the human race.
Or at least the rich ones.
Nuance based search FOUND!
Yes! I had saved the idea as a text file on my desktop. Here it is:
Nuance or Overview
The web has become our primary source of information. And search engines have become the curator/gate to this information. This is great when our motivations align with the search engine, and not so great otherwise. LP of Google defines the ultimate search as one which returns 1 result, the one you are looking for. Many times, however, I am not looking for one result. Rather, I want an overview on a situation, or background information on a topic. This current work describes an architecture for such a tool.
* what about mobile? How does this change the perception.
Use cases:
1) Greek/EU debt. Relevant information could include
2) Researching an investment/stock.
3) State of the art in molecular biology.
4)
Archetecture:
find everything relevant to the topic.
Sort by theme/relevance/filter bubble
Present as a tree, with a history tree (not just forward/backward)
Improvements:
Named filter bubbles-- how would celeb X view the world?
Allow people to volunteer to share their bubble!
Auto-blogging, with immediate relevance to what the person was searching for!
Number of top-level branches in the tree?
Nuance or Overview
The web has become our primary source of information. And search engines have become the curator/gate to this information. This is great when our motivations align with the search engine, and not so great otherwise. LP of Google defines the ultimate search as one which returns 1 result, the one you are looking for. Many times, however, I am not looking for one result. Rather, I want an overview on a situation, or background information on a topic. This current work describes an architecture for such a tool.
* what about mobile? How does this change the perception.
Use cases:
1) Greek/EU debt. Relevant information could include
2) Researching an investment/stock.
3) State of the art in molecular biology.
4)
Archetecture:
find everything relevant to the topic.
Sort by theme/relevance/filter bubble
Present as a tree, with a history tree (not just forward/backward)
Improvements:
Named filter bubbles-- how would celeb X view the world?
Allow people to volunteer to share their bubble!
Auto-blogging, with immediate relevance to what the person was searching for!
Number of top-level branches in the tree?
Friday, August 19, 2011
biclustering
Useful for biological systems, as it can identify modules of cells/genes/whatever
cMonkey is one promising algorithm
cmonkey
at ISMB, someone presented on
multi-species c-monkey
pmed link
Abstract:
We describe an algorithm, multi-species cMonkey, for the simultaneous biclustering of heterogeneous multiple-species data collections and apply the algorithm to a group of bacteria containing Bacillus subtilis, Bacillus anthracis, and Listeria monocytogenes. The algorithm reveals evolutionary insights into the surprisingly high degree of conservation of regulatory modules across these three species and allows data and insights from well-studied organisms to complement the analysis of related but less well studied organisms.
cMonkey is one promising algorithm
cmonkey
at ISMB, someone presented on
multi-species c-monkey
pmed link
Abstract:
We describe an algorithm, multi-species cMonkey, for the simultaneous biclustering of heterogeneous multiple-species data collections and apply the algorithm to a group of bacteria containing Bacillus subtilis, Bacillus anthracis, and Listeria monocytogenes. The algorithm reveals evolutionary insights into the surprisingly high degree of conservation of regulatory modules across these three species and allows data and insights from well-studied organisms to complement the analysis of related but less well studied organisms.
Morality Trainer App
An app with Ben Franklin's system.
Rows are an ordered list of moral desirata.
Columns are the days of the week.
You put a mark in each block for each item which you succeeded in that day.
It starts clear each week.
Track you stats, how you are improving from week to week, over time, etc
Rows are an ordered list of moral desirata.
Columns are the days of the week.
You put a mark in each block for each item which you succeeded in that day.
It starts clear each week.
Track you stats, how you are improving from week to week, over time, etc
Nuance based search
That's all I have left. Just this phrase, which meant something to me when I wrote it down. I am sure it was genius
David Blaine: How I held my breath for 17 minutes
Answer: lots of training and you breath pure oxygen for an hour ahead of time.
He is a professional stunt/magician. Great presenter.
Fasted for 44 days, results written in New England Journal of Medicine.
A fun line:
"So I did what anyone else would do (pause). Went down to their offices and started doing card tricks"
The breath-hold was on Oprah. It did not go as planned, heart rate at 120+ instead of his target of 32. At the 8 minute mark he was sure he would not beat the record of 16.30 minutes. But he realized if he came out of the tank then, he would still be on Oprah, and the show would be about how depressed he was. Better to stay in the tank until he blacked out, so even though he would not reach his goal, he would be whisked away under medical care and not have to talk to O about it for 45 minutes.
He made his goal
He is a professional stunt/magician. Great presenter.
Fasted for 44 days, results written in New England Journal of Medicine.
A fun line:
"So I did what anyone else would do (pause). Went down to their offices and started doing card tricks"
The breath-hold was on Oprah. It did not go as planned, heart rate at 120+ instead of his target of 32. At the 8 minute mark he was sure he would not beat the record of 16.30 minutes. But he realized if he came out of the tank then, he would still be on Oprah, and the show would be about how depressed he was. Better to stay in the tank until he blacked out, so even though he would not reach his goal, he would be whisked away under medical care and not have to talk to O about it for 45 minutes.
He made his goal
Daniel Tammet: Savant (2011)
He is a functioning savant. His speach is slow and measured which I very much enjoyed while blasting down the autobahn, but found boring on the second viewing.
Synesthesia must be nice.
He claims that how we percieve things influences how we learn and what we know.
Synesthesia must be nice.
He claims that how we percieve things influences how we learn and what we know.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Rock Paper Scisors strategy
The game is played by humans, and thus not at all random.
1) Rock is for rookies. Most rookies begin by playing rock.
2) if the opponent makes the same move twice in a row, they almost certainly won't do it again.
3a) Players often imitate their opponents last move. Mimicry is powerful.
3b) When discussing a game, gesutre repeatedly with the move you want them to play first. Mimicry is powerful
4) If someone loses a round, they often play the move which would have won the last round.
5) Announce your next move (verbally) before hand. Your opponent will think you are bluffing.
Now if I was serious about this, I might develop some sequences of winning moves.
On the other hand, I tend to do pretty well at the game by running on intuition. This is the kind of thing which, when I instead turn to "logic/reason", I end up killing my edge.
1) Rock is for rookies. Most rookies begin by playing rock.
2) if the opponent makes the same move twice in a row, they almost certainly won't do it again.
3a) Players often imitate their opponents last move. Mimicry is powerful.
3b) When discussing a game, gesutre repeatedly with the move you want them to play first. Mimicry is powerful
4) If someone loses a round, they often play the move which would have won the last round.
5) Announce your next move (verbally) before hand. Your opponent will think you are bluffing.
Now if I was serious about this, I might develop some sequences of winning moves.
On the other hand, I tend to do pretty well at the game by running on intuition. This is the kind of thing which, when I instead turn to "logic/reason", I end up killing my edge.
Victorian Internet-- Tom Standage
An amazingly thin and vapid book. So little deep thought in so many pages! Breezed through it.
My take: Mr. Standage read a number of publications contemporary to the beginning of the telegraph, took some notes, and called it a book.
I must get into this business.
Key insights: Lord Kelvin made his fortune and his name and his title by developing a working bit of the telegraph system. Forget what it was, probably undersea cables.
The telegraph is what changed the word. Everything since (telephone, internet, social media) is an evolution, not a revolution.
My book idea:
Breakthrough: The creative spark in life and culture.
My take: Mr. Standage read a number of publications contemporary to the beginning of the telegraph, took some notes, and called it a book.
I must get into this business.
Key insights: Lord Kelvin made his fortune and his name and his title by developing a working bit of the telegraph system. Forget what it was, probably undersea cables.
The telegraph is what changed the word. Everything since (telephone, internet, social media) is an evolution, not a revolution.
My book idea:
Breakthrough: The creative spark in life and culture.
Paul Romer: World's first charter city TED2011
Honduras is looking at a way to allow its people, or those who want to, to "go to the USA" without leaving Honduras.
The wealth produced by a city is far greater than the cost of building one.
Both Singapore and South Korea are in the city building business. They can put up a full city in a few years, once regulatory approval is granted.
A charter city is a special administrative zone whose rules/laws are determined by the charter. They might operate under US law, though not, perhaps, US jurisdiction.
The wealth produced by a city is far greater than the cost of building one.
Both Singapore and South Korea are in the city building business. They can put up a full city in a few years, once regulatory approval is granted.
A charter city is a special administrative zone whose rules/laws are determined by the charter. They might operate under US law, though not, perhaps, US jurisdiction.
Alice Dregger-- anatomy destiny
She works with people whose anatomy defies our standard classes, the odd sex types (male body with ovaries, etc), co-joined twins, etc.
The founding fathers, as part of the enlightenment, looked to science for guidance. They speak of a nature of God, looking for holy principles in the world, not in scriptures.
The founding fathers, as part of the enlightenment, looked to science for guidance. They speak of a nature of God, looking for holy principles in the world, not in scriptures.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
A new morality for a new age
One reflection from all the RSA talks: We need a new morality.
Moral history: in the tribal age, it is loyalty to the tribe. People who are not in the tribe have no rights/standing, except to the extent that their tribe can help/hurt ours.
With the founding of cities, this no longer works. Hence the need for a new ethic. The writings of Paul are one example of extending tribal ethics to urban ethics.
Next we add concepts like rule of law
What do we need to add to move it to a global level? What duty/resposibility/rights does one have in a global setting? What about given the greatly increased population size, and concordant environmental costs?
I do notice that people become more passive and less aggressive; indeed this is necessary.
Moral history: in the tribal age, it is loyalty to the tribe. People who are not in the tribe have no rights/standing, except to the extent that their tribe can help/hurt ours.
With the founding of cities, this no longer works. Hence the need for a new ethic. The writings of Paul are one example of extending tribal ethics to urban ethics.
Next we add concepts like rule of law
What do we need to add to move it to a global level? What duty/resposibility/rights does one have in a global setting? What about given the greatly increased population size, and concordant environmental costs?
I do notice that people become more passive and less aggressive; indeed this is necessary.
language hacking
We start with a website:
Fluentin3months
His advice:
Start speaking the language right away.
Find a list of cognates (words which overlap with a language you already know).
Build vocab using cognates, image association, and spaced repetition
Learn useful phrases
Learn grammar last
Finally a link to links: blogs
Fluentin3months
His advice:
Start speaking the language right away.
Find a list of cognates (words which overlap with a language you already know).
Build vocab using cognates, image association, and spaced repetition
Learn useful phrases
Learn grammar last
Finally a link to links: blogs
Cesar Hildago
does interesting work with networks
Homepage
Including economic networks (how different products are connected)
Homepage
Including economic networks (how different products are connected)
IDCC, what I did wrong
IDCC is valuable because they hold a number (8000) important wireless patients. I knew this months ago, bought the stock, and sold it when it went nowhere.
Then came the Google vs Apple/Microsof/RIM purchase of Nortel. This clearly indicated a will to buy patient portfolios.
Several weeks later, IDCC made a huge price jump on rumours of a buyout.
Then came the Google vs Apple/Microsof/RIM purchase of Nortel. This clearly indicated a will to buy patient portfolios.
Several weeks later, IDCC made a huge price jump on rumours of a buyout.
investing in gold
Gold is a hedge, which suggests it should be 10-15% of the portfolio.
You can buy ounces of gold above ground (bullion) or below ground (mining companies). Gold stocks normally show 2-3x leverage on any move in bullion, up or down, suggesting that they are lagging.
GDX is the mining ETF.
ETFs may be better than individual companies, as each company has its own dynamic. Still, two possibilities are
Newcrest Mining PINK:NCMGY
Goldcorp NYSE:GG
You can buy ounces of gold above ground (bullion) or below ground (mining companies). Gold stocks normally show 2-3x leverage on any move in bullion, up or down, suggesting that they are lagging.
GDX is the mining ETF.
ETFs may be better than individual companies, as each company has its own dynamic. Still, two possibilities are
Newcrest Mining PINK:NCMGY
Goldcorp NYSE:GG
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Simon Mainwaring "We first capitalism" 14 july 2011
Corporations as the third force for social change.
A company should, out of self interest, be interested in maintaining the society in which it operates.
Engagement.
Examples: Cocacola shipping vaccines in the dead spaces in their cola crates.
Corporations using their expertese (supply chain, logistics, etc) to support society.
A hero company: patagonia
A company should, out of self interest, be interested in maintaining the society in which it operates.
Engagement.
Examples: Cocacola shipping vaccines in the dead spaces in their cola crates.
Corporations using their expertese (supply chain, logistics, etc) to support society.
A hero company: patagonia
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Educational videos
Some resources:
engineerguy.com
pbs.org/teachers
youtube.com/edu
and, of course, khan academy
engineerguy.com
pbs.org/teachers
youtube.com/edu
and, of course, khan academy
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Kevin Slavin: How algorithms shape our world - June 2011
Kevin was involved in some internet/gaming startups
Area/Code (exited > Zynga New York) Starling.
which mix virtual and reality
I think this talk was seeded by a lucky seating assignment on an airplane, next to a Hungarian physicist who had worked on detecting steath airplanes and now was looking for stealth transactions on Wall Street.
Synopsis of his view:
Stealth works by breaking up the signal into lots of little pieces, like a flock of birds. You break it by scanning for flocks of birds which emit electronic signals.
3000 physiscist working on wall street. Need to hide big trades (i.e. pension fund buys/sells 10% of a company). Done via algorithms. Other algos can then detect these algos.
Algos now high speed. 2-5 milliseconds. To the point where network latency determines profit or loss. Thus companies now put their server farms right next to where the big pipe comes into NY. A fiber optic cable was laid from chicago to NY to reduce latency times.
We are changing the physical infrastructure to serve the algos.
The algos are black boxes.
Strong analogy with the filter bubble, see Eli Pariser
Area/Code (exited > Zynga New York) Starling.
which mix virtual and reality
I think this talk was seeded by a lucky seating assignment on an airplane, next to a Hungarian physicist who had worked on detecting steath airplanes and now was looking for stealth transactions on Wall Street.
Synopsis of his view:
Stealth works by breaking up the signal into lots of little pieces, like a flock of birds. You break it by scanning for flocks of birds which emit electronic signals.
3000 physiscist working on wall street. Need to hide big trades (i.e. pension fund buys/sells 10% of a company). Done via algorithms. Other algos can then detect these algos.
Algos now high speed. 2-5 milliseconds. To the point where network latency determines profit or loss. Thus companies now put their server farms right next to where the big pipe comes into NY. A fiber optic cable was laid from chicago to NY to reduce latency times.
We are changing the physical infrastructure to serve the algos.
The algos are black boxes.
Strong analogy with the filter bubble, see Eli Pariser
The role of politicians
Comment the other day that the role of a politician is to deliver his constituents to his funders.
revised: Politicians are not opinion leaders, but middlemen.
revised: Politicians are not opinion leaders, but middlemen.
Eli Pariser "The Filter Bubble" 23rd Jun 2011
Ironic-- this guy is famous only because Google turned his website into THE page which organized community in response to 9/11, yet he things google just doesn't get what is important.
His take:
We see the internet/world via facebook and google. These use personal filters when deciding what to present to us.
Problems: We don't know what is being filtered out.
Facebook has a like button, which is popular and has a strong filter weight. But while you can "like" a photo of a kitten, it is hard to "like" a story of famine, even though you wish to spread awareness of the event.
Primary design criteria for the filter is to keep you clicking, and keep you using the site. Designed to be addictive, not nutritious. Facebook and google are not free, they are sponsored.
People feel good (small dopermegenic burst) when they are told something they already know, or agree with. Everyone likes to be right. The filters use this.
Two people can get vastly different pictures of the world. Example: two searches on "Egypt". One gets news articles about the Arab Spring, the other gets tourist information about the pyramids.
My take:
He is right about everything, but his thoughts are not mature.
You might not "Like" a famine, but you can "like" a call to action to solve the problem.
He discovered the problem when he tried to find facebook friends who he knew saw the world differently than he did, and found them filtered out. Well, he could have just emailed/messaged them, couldn't he? How bad did he want to know what they were thinking?
Use curated websites when you want an overview. Google "popular conservative blogs".
Of course the tools are not universally applicable. Of course the tool alters the way you think about the issue. But it is just a tool, not the one ring.
His take:
We see the internet/world via facebook and google. These use personal filters when deciding what to present to us.
Problems: We don't know what is being filtered out.
Facebook has a like button, which is popular and has a strong filter weight. But while you can "like" a photo of a kitten, it is hard to "like" a story of famine, even though you wish to spread awareness of the event.
Primary design criteria for the filter is to keep you clicking, and keep you using the site. Designed to be addictive, not nutritious. Facebook and google are not free, they are sponsored.
People feel good (small dopermegenic burst) when they are told something they already know, or agree with. Everyone likes to be right. The filters use this.
Two people can get vastly different pictures of the world. Example: two searches on "Egypt". One gets news articles about the Arab Spring, the other gets tourist information about the pyramids.
My take:
He is right about everything, but his thoughts are not mature.
You might not "Like" a famine, but you can "like" a call to action to solve the problem.
He discovered the problem when he tried to find facebook friends who he knew saw the world differently than he did, and found them filtered out. Well, he could have just emailed/messaged them, couldn't he? How bad did he want to know what they were thinking?
Use curated websites when you want an overview. Google "popular conservative blogs".
Of course the tools are not universally applicable. Of course the tool alters the way you think about the issue. But it is just a tool, not the one ring.
DRAFT-- (im)morality of debt
This is an idea I wish to develop more.
Posting an early draft version, full of flaws
The morality of US debt
I did a favor for someone recently, which involved money. They thanked me and said they didn't know how they would ever repay me. I said getting the money back would be enough.
Debt. It is essential to social function, to a functioning society. But even more important than debt is debt forgiveness, redemption. Debt is obligation, debt is bondage, and ultimately, debt is slavery.
Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Tyagi, writing in the Boston Review in 2005, discuss the sorry state of middle America's finances. There seems to be a cry from the right wing and from banks that this is middle America's fault, that if only they weren't so consumer crazy, always buying the latest and best fasion and gadgets, all the while living beyond their means, then they would be in better shape. The cry was turned into a major re-write of bankrupcy laws, laws which were in essence written by the lenders.
But the data does not show that Americans are overspending, in fact they spend less of their income on food/restaurants, clothes, appliances, cars, etc. then they did in the 70's. Instead, they face higher costs, for taxes, health insurance, child care.
http://bostonreview.net/BR30.5/warrentyagi.php
My neice was unemployed for a period of some months. She doesn't have a savings built up because she is young, having just graduated college, and hasn't had time. So she lived off her credit card. Irresponsible? I hardly think so. The bank charged her 24% interest on the credit card loan. How do you repay a debt which has an interest rate of 24%? Who is acting immorally here? In her defense, the debt has been repaid, along with the usurious and exploitative interest charges.
And wait a minute, wasn't it these same prophets of the right who encourage middle America to spend? Who was it who urged us, as our 'patriotic duty', to go shopping after 9-11? Since when did consumption become a patriotic duty?
That question has, in fact, been answered in the great BBC documentary 'The Century of the Self'. This describes how the industrial revolution lead to excess of capacity, threatening the foundations of the industrial society, and, more importantly, the bank balances of its leaders. Something had to be done. Something was done. Advertising convinced us that the route to personal fulfillment was through buying things. This is a message which is continually rammed down our throat, in ever sophistocated means. It is, in fact, a precept. If we measure a country's growth in terms of GNP, then GNP must increase each year, which can only happen if consumption also increases each year. Our economy is built on a model of continually and exponentially growning consumption.
Whenever the right wing gets moralistic, they turn to Christianity to back themselves. This is quite odd when applied to debt. One wonders what would happen if they prayed the Lord's prayer, the way Jesus taught us we are supposed to pray. "Forgive us our debts, as we have forgiven our debtors. But was Jesus talking about money here? Well, yes, he actually did have a few parables about people who owed money. Nor should we forget the Year of Jubilee, as decreed by God the Father, during which all financial debts are forgiven. Certainly the debts in the Lord's prayer are more than financial, but just as certainly they do not exclude the financial.
And at this point it is also instructive to think about where all this money which we supposedly owe comes from. Did the banks take from their hard-earned resources, which they had carefully built and saved over the years, and risk them to help us? Not hardly. Thanks to the glory of fractional reserve banking (and yes, this is a good thing), the money is, in fact, something they just made up.
And didn't we, in fact, just spend billions (or was it more) of OUR money, earned by the sweat of our brow, via our taxes (remember that the ultra rich and the corporations do not pay tax, only middle America), to bail out these banks?
Something is very wrong with the Repulican party
Posting an early draft version, full of flaws
The morality of US debt
I did a favor for someone recently, which involved money. They thanked me and said they didn't know how they would ever repay me. I said getting the money back would be enough.
Debt. It is essential to social function, to a functioning society. But even more important than debt is debt forgiveness, redemption. Debt is obligation, debt is bondage, and ultimately, debt is slavery.
Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Tyagi, writing in the Boston Review in 2005, discuss the sorry state of middle America's finances. There seems to be a cry from the right wing and from banks that this is middle America's fault, that if only they weren't so consumer crazy, always buying the latest and best fasion and gadgets, all the while living beyond their means, then they would be in better shape. The cry was turned into a major re-write of bankrupcy laws, laws which were in essence written by the lenders.
But the data does not show that Americans are overspending, in fact they spend less of their income on food/restaurants, clothes, appliances, cars, etc. then they did in the 70's. Instead, they face higher costs, for taxes, health insurance, child care.
http://bostonreview.net/BR30.5/warrentyagi.php
My neice was unemployed for a period of some months. She doesn't have a savings built up because she is young, having just graduated college, and hasn't had time. So she lived off her credit card. Irresponsible? I hardly think so. The bank charged her 24% interest on the credit card loan. How do you repay a debt which has an interest rate of 24%? Who is acting immorally here? In her defense, the debt has been repaid, along with the usurious and exploitative interest charges.
And wait a minute, wasn't it these same prophets of the right who encourage middle America to spend? Who was it who urged us, as our 'patriotic duty', to go shopping after 9-11? Since when did consumption become a patriotic duty?
That question has, in fact, been answered in the great BBC documentary 'The Century of the Self'. This describes how the industrial revolution lead to excess of capacity, threatening the foundations of the industrial society, and, more importantly, the bank balances of its leaders. Something had to be done. Something was done. Advertising convinced us that the route to personal fulfillment was through buying things. This is a message which is continually rammed down our throat, in ever sophistocated means. It is, in fact, a precept. If we measure a country's growth in terms of GNP, then GNP must increase each year, which can only happen if consumption also increases each year. Our economy is built on a model of continually and exponentially growning consumption.
Whenever the right wing gets moralistic, they turn to Christianity to back themselves. This is quite odd when applied to debt. One wonders what would happen if they prayed the Lord's prayer, the way Jesus taught us we are supposed to pray. "Forgive us our debts, as we have forgiven our debtors. But was Jesus talking about money here? Well, yes, he actually did have a few parables about people who owed money. Nor should we forget the Year of Jubilee, as decreed by God the Father, during which all financial debts are forgiven. Certainly the debts in the Lord's prayer are more than financial, but just as certainly they do not exclude the financial.
And at this point it is also instructive to think about where all this money which we supposedly owe comes from. Did the banks take from their hard-earned resources, which they had carefully built and saved over the years, and risk them to help us? Not hardly. Thanks to the glory of fractional reserve banking (and yes, this is a good thing), the money is, in fact, something they just made up.
And didn't we, in fact, just spend billions (or was it more) of OUR money, earned by the sweat of our brow, via our taxes (remember that the ultra rich and the corporations do not pay tax, only middle America), to bail out these banks?
Something is very wrong with the Repulican party
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
stock picks-- ideas from pennysleuth.com
Presented with a grain of salt. A big grain.
Memristors: a great, new type of electronics awaits. Today's price:
HPQ 37.47
Magnachip Semiconductor LLC (NYSE:MX) 11.28
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), 7.86
and Netlist, Inc. (NASDAQ:NLST). 1.86
-----------------------------------
HTML 5 will revolutionize the web, and AMD makes the video cards which will make it happen
AMD 7.66
NVIDIA (NVDA) 14.40
--------------------------------------
Medicine and drug discovery
Accelr8 Technology Corp. (AMEX:AXK) 4.01
product is BACeITM which identifies bacteria without need for a culture.
Macro economics
Evidence: macro-based funds (i.e. Soros) have been struggling in this last year, even though the year has been dominated by macro factors. Why?
It is now macro-political, not macro-economic. The politics are much harder to predi
It is now macro-political, not macro-economic. The politics are much harder to predi
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Tomas Sedelack "The Economics of good and evil"
Advises the Hungarian goverment on policy.
Studied economy in myths and religious texts, then studied myths and religious texts in economics.
triggered an idea-- model the evolution of the fairy tale?
Governments have two tools: Fiscal policy, that is the ability to put the people into debt, and monetary policy, that is the ability to print money (or remove it)
Fiscal policy: Jacob/Pharoh, 7 rich years and 7 lean years.
Interesting that it has been 7 rich years, from 2001 until 2008...
Jocob advised Pharoh to set aside 20%
We ate everything, and in fact did more, we borrowed recklessly during the good years.
Compare GDP to deficit growth, US had a net of -28% over the last few years. GDP by itself is not enough, since you can only borrow money from your future (unless you default..)
Hungarian policy is to keep the GDP growth and deficit at a fixed ratio. Save in the rich years, spend in the lean years.
Monitary policy. Analogy to the One Ring in LotR. Great power, but corrupts and destroys. He is here talking about the ability to print money.
Interest rate is like alcohol. Alcohol doesn't give you more energy, it merely lets you move some energy to Friday night from Saturday morning. Nothing wrong with that. A bit of a problem if you move energy from Monday morning to Sunday night, esp. if you have an important meeting.
Problem with interest rates is you time-shift the money more than a few days, and you do not know what the conditions will be when the energy deficit hits.
Our society has a built in weakness. It says you need the money at the start of your career, to pay for college, house, car. And you have the money at the end of your career. Which is a problem if you don't become CEO.
Studied economy in myths and religious texts, then studied myths and religious texts in economics.
triggered an idea-- model the evolution of the fairy tale?
Governments have two tools: Fiscal policy, that is the ability to put the people into debt, and monetary policy, that is the ability to print money (or remove it)
Fiscal policy: Jacob/Pharoh, 7 rich years and 7 lean years.
Interesting that it has been 7 rich years, from 2001 until 2008...
Jocob advised Pharoh to set aside 20%
We ate everything, and in fact did more, we borrowed recklessly during the good years.
Compare GDP to deficit growth, US had a net of -28% over the last few years. GDP by itself is not enough, since you can only borrow money from your future (unless you default..)
Hungarian policy is to keep the GDP growth and deficit at a fixed ratio. Save in the rich years, spend in the lean years.
Monitary policy. Analogy to the One Ring in LotR. Great power, but corrupts and destroys. He is here talking about the ability to print money.
Interest rate is like alcohol. Alcohol doesn't give you more energy, it merely lets you move some energy to Friday night from Saturday morning. Nothing wrong with that. A bit of a problem if you move energy from Monday morning to Sunday night, esp. if you have an important meeting.
Problem with interest rates is you time-shift the money more than a few days, and you do not know what the conditions will be when the energy deficit hits.
Our society has a built in weakness. It says you need the money at the start of your career, to pay for college, house, car. And you have the money at the end of your career. Which is a problem if you don't become CEO.
Ian Leslie 06-09-2011 Necessary Lies
Mr. Leslie works in advertising and writing (newspaper columns and books)
Argues that lies are essential to civilization.
The development of the neocortex is to allow us to both be better liars and better at detecting lies. Strong correlation between brain size and "trickyness"/deceit in monkeys.
Punishing lies harshly only makes people better liars. Example of two schools, one run by nuns with strict corpreal punishment for lying, the other where it resulted in detention. At the nuns school, lies became endemic, the norm.
Politicians. They don't lie as much as they are rumoured too, but that is because no-one can lie 100% of the time. Pols lie because we reward the ones who do, who promise what we want even though it is not possible. We punish them when they tell the truth, or decribe the situation as it really is.
Medicine. The strength of the placebo effect.
Self deception. We all lie to ourselves. Seeing ourselves as others do is equivalent to clinical depression. Belief in ones self correlates with later success in most fields; the "truth" of that belief is not so important. Mr. Leslie calls this lieing to oneself.
This self deception also appears on a social level, and is hugely important to a society. The American ideal that we can all succeed in business, or that we are all if not today, then soon, to be in the upper 1%.
My take:
First, he confuses lies with vision. The vision only succeeds when you believe in it. This is also why we want our leaders to give us vision and hope. It is the only way out of the mess.
A vision is sight of how things could be, not how they are. A vision is not a lie, not some dangerous delusion. It is central to what makes us human.
I think Mr. Leslie would agree.
Hume's take: Man is driven by imagination (i.e. vision, or things which exist in the mind but do not necessarily correspond to the current state of the world) The organizing principles which support these visions are the cultural context, both broad and narrow.
Argues that lies are essential to civilization.
The development of the neocortex is to allow us to both be better liars and better at detecting lies. Strong correlation between brain size and "trickyness"/deceit in monkeys.
Punishing lies harshly only makes people better liars. Example of two schools, one run by nuns with strict corpreal punishment for lying, the other where it resulted in detention. At the nuns school, lies became endemic, the norm.
Politicians. They don't lie as much as they are rumoured too, but that is because no-one can lie 100% of the time. Pols lie because we reward the ones who do, who promise what we want even though it is not possible. We punish them when they tell the truth, or decribe the situation as it really is.
Medicine. The strength of the placebo effect.
Self deception. We all lie to ourselves. Seeing ourselves as others do is equivalent to clinical depression. Belief in ones self correlates with later success in most fields; the "truth" of that belief is not so important. Mr. Leslie calls this lieing to oneself.
This self deception also appears on a social level, and is hugely important to a society. The American ideal that we can all succeed in business, or that we are all if not today, then soon, to be in the upper 1%.
My take:
First, he confuses lies with vision. The vision only succeeds when you believe in it. This is also why we want our leaders to give us vision and hope. It is the only way out of the mess.
A vision is sight of how things could be, not how they are. A vision is not a lie, not some dangerous delusion. It is central to what makes us human.
I think Mr. Leslie would agree.
Hume's take: Man is driven by imagination (i.e. vision, or things which exist in the mind but do not necessarily correspond to the current state of the world) The organizing principles which support these visions are the cultural context, both broad and narrow.
spotting addicts
In memory of Amy Winehouse
The disease of addiction. All addicts, regardless of the substance or their social status share a consistent and obvious symptom; they’re not quite present when you talk to them. They communicate to you through a barely discernible but un-ignorable veil... They have about them the air of elsewhere, that they’re looking through you to somewhere else they’d rather be. And of course they are. The priority of any addict is to anaesthetise the pain of living to ease the passage of the day with some purchased relief.
All we can do is adapt the way we view this condition, not as a crime or a romantic affectation but as a disease that will kill. We need to review the way society treats addicts, not as criminals but as sick people in need of care. We need to look at the way our government funds rehabilitation. It is cheaper to rehabilitate an addict than to send them to prison, so criminalisation doesn’t even make economic sense.
From
http://www.russellbrand.tv/2011/07/for-amy/
The disease of addiction. All addicts, regardless of the substance or their social status share a consistent and obvious symptom; they’re not quite present when you talk to them. They communicate to you through a barely discernible but un-ignorable veil... They have about them the air of elsewhere, that they’re looking through you to somewhere else they’d rather be. And of course they are. The priority of any addict is to anaesthetise the pain of living to ease the passage of the day with some purchased relief.
All we can do is adapt the way we view this condition, not as a crime or a romantic affectation but as a disease that will kill. We need to review the way society treats addicts, not as criminals but as sick people in need of care. We need to look at the way our government funds rehabilitation. It is cheaper to rehabilitate an addict than to send them to prison, so criminalisation doesn’t even make economic sense.
From
http://www.russellbrand.tv/2011/07/for-amy/
We cannot predict the future
Posting this because the idea has come up 2 or 3 times in the last few days.
People are bad at predicting the future. Even experts.
From Freakenomics blog:
It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brain, which has become trained to ignore the record of those who make them. In this hour of Freakonomics Radio, we’ll dream of the day when bad predictors pay.
hour long vid here:
http://freakonomicsradio.com/hour-long-special-the-folly-of-prediction.html
People are bad at predicting the future. Even experts.
From Freakenomics blog:
It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brain, which has become trained to ignore the record of those who make them. In this hour of Freakonomics Radio, we’ll dream of the day when bad predictors pay.
hour long vid here:
http://freakonomicsradio.com/hour-long-special-the-folly-of-prediction.html
Monday, July 25, 2011
Simon Cohen Zero Degrees of Empathy 6/14/2011
Professor of both psychiatry and psychology at Cambridge.
What strikes me is his motivation-- he begins by caring about people, and then moves to trying to understand what is going on in the mind.
Two kinds of zero empathy-- negative (hurts self & others), this is psychopathy. Positive (do not intentionally hurt others) autism, which has the bonus of attention to detail.
Empathy has a genetic component. So it should be present in other animals. Best monkey example is an experiment from the 60's. Train monkeys to pull a chain to get a food reward. They learn fast. Then change it, so when they pull the chain, they get the food AND they see a fellow monkey receive an electric shock. They soon stop pulling the chain. One monkey even starved itself for 12 days rather than hurt a fellow monkey.
What strikes me is his motivation-- he begins by caring about people, and then moves to trying to understand what is going on in the mind.
Two kinds of zero empathy-- negative (hurts self & others), this is psychopathy. Positive (do not intentionally hurt others) autism, which has the bonus of attention to detail.
Empathy has a genetic component. So it should be present in other animals. Best monkey example is an experiment from the 60's. Train monkeys to pull a chain to get a food reward. They learn fast. Then change it, so when they pull the chain, they get the food AND they see a fellow monkey receive an electric shock. They soon stop pulling the chain. One monkey even starved itself for 12 days rather than hurt a fellow monkey.
Genetic Landscape of a Cell
Article by Costanzo et al, in Science (vol 327, Jan 2010).
New word Pleiotropy - when a single gene influences multiple phenotypic traits.
Like so many other biological networks, the degree distribution follows a power law. Network hubs have a high degree of pleiotropy, with the number of genetic interactions for a hubsignificantly correlated with the number of distinct annotated functions. Does this work in reverse? This suggests that genetic network hubs play key roles in the integration and execution of morphogenetic programs.
In addition, hubs tend to be expressed at higher mRNA levels, genetic interaction degree corresponds positively with gene conseravation and negatively with copy number volatility.
Layout was done using Cytoscape, with an edge-weighted spring embedded algorithm
Fun stuff!
New word Pleiotropy - when a single gene influences multiple phenotypic traits.
Like so many other biological networks, the degree distribution follows a power law. Network hubs have a high degree of pleiotropy, with the number of genetic interactions for a hubsignificantly correlated with the number of distinct annotated functions. Does this work in reverse? This suggests that genetic network hubs play key roles in the integration and execution of morphogenetic programs.
In addition, hubs tend to be expressed at higher mRNA levels, genetic interaction degree corresponds positively with gene conseravation and negatively with copy number volatility.
Layout was done using Cytoscape, with an edge-weighted spring embedded algorithm
Fun stuff!
Celestial Navigation
Links and supplies:
Books by David Burch:
1830 Emergency Navigation 13.95
1887 Celestial Navigation 49.00
from
Starpath School of Navigation
3050 - NW 63rd Street
Seattle, WA 98107, U.S.A.
tel (206)-783-1414
FAX (206)-783-9209
https://www.starpath.com/
Plotting sheet:
http://www.starpath.com/downloads/ups.pdf
Also look at:
Free online course at:
http://www.celestial-navigation-course.com/
http://www.celestialnavigation.net/
Books by David Burch:
1830 Emergency Navigation 13.95
1887 Celestial Navigation 49.00
from
Starpath School of Navigation
3050 - NW 63rd Street
Seattle, WA 98107, U.S.A.
tel (206)-783-1414
FAX (206)-783-9209
https://www.starpath.com/
Plotting sheet:
http://www.starpath.com/downloads/ups.pdf
Also look at:
Free online course at:
http://www.celestial-navigation-course.com/
http://www.celestialnavigation.net/
Tim Harford 6/7/2011 why success starts with failure
Mr. Harford is an economist, writes for the FT, fellow at Oxford & somewhere else, author of a few books.
The main idea of this talk is that trial and error is the best way to solve complex problems. An advantage of markets is they allow trial an error. Think "limited liability company". Compare (US) west coast "fail faster" and east coast "too big to fail". Which adds more value to the economy?
The key component is error. Many things will fail. People are bad at predicting the future, even experts are usually wrong.
A better word is experimentation. Have several different approaches tested out. He is very fond of Cochran & evidence based medicine-- conduct randomized trials.
Mr. Harford is also concerned that governments are really bad at this stuff. People don't like leaders who are not confident that they have the solution. School lunches, it is ok for Jamie Oliver to do it, but no way can Blair run experiments on school food.
The coke analogy. People want the same standard everywhere. No post-code lottery. My hospital should be just as good as the other hospital. This standarization is the death of experimentation. You cannot try out different things if everything has to be the same.
Right. So my take:
The experimentation takes place on the level of the society. An individual, or smaller group, depends on a vision and absolute conviction to that vision. The trial does not succeed without the individual vision pushing it.
Example from this talk. Army colonel in Iraq sees how to fight that thing, and does it. Universally scorned by his commanders because he isn't doing it there way. Risking his men's lives. But also, he was right, or rather, his method was hugely successful.
Point from the discussion. The importance of luck, both lifting one up and pulling one down.
The main idea of this talk is that trial and error is the best way to solve complex problems. An advantage of markets is they allow trial an error. Think "limited liability company". Compare (US) west coast "fail faster" and east coast "too big to fail". Which adds more value to the economy?
The key component is error. Many things will fail. People are bad at predicting the future, even experts are usually wrong.
A better word is experimentation. Have several different approaches tested out. He is very fond of Cochran & evidence based medicine-- conduct randomized trials.
Mr. Harford is also concerned that governments are really bad at this stuff. People don't like leaders who are not confident that they have the solution. School lunches, it is ok for Jamie Oliver to do it, but no way can Blair run experiments on school food.
The coke analogy. People want the same standard everywhere. No post-code lottery. My hospital should be just as good as the other hospital. This standarization is the death of experimentation. You cannot try out different things if everything has to be the same.
Right. So my take:
The experimentation takes place on the level of the society. An individual, or smaller group, depends on a vision and absolute conviction to that vision. The trial does not succeed without the individual vision pushing it.
Example from this talk. Army colonel in Iraq sees how to fight that thing, and does it. Universally scorned by his commanders because he isn't doing it there way. Risking his men's lives. But also, he was right, or rather, his method was hugely successful.
Point from the discussion. The importance of luck, both lifting one up and pulling one down.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
HUMAnN project
This project tracts the human microbiome
16s sequencing ribosomal, gives taxonomic name tags.
Software (available for download):
BLASTs sequences to identify genes.
Includes each gene using its weighted average BLAST score
Assigns genes to pathways
under restraints of minimum parsimony
and taxonomic limitation
smooths (data is counts, so Witten-Bell smoothing)
+ a few more steps (gap filling)
Results:
For any given environment (tooth, gut, etc.), the same basic pathways are present at about the same abundance, but the species/taxons vary greatly in abundance.
Further, all pathways/functions available everywhere, with local enrichment for those which are locally usefull.
software/links
huttenhower.sph.harvard.edu
Look for Valm et al PNAS 2011 on the tooth metagenome
16s sequencing ribosomal, gives taxonomic name tags.
Software (available for download):
BLASTs sequences to identify genes.
Includes each gene using its weighted average BLAST score
Assigns genes to pathways
under restraints of minimum parsimony
and taxonomic limitation
smooths (data is counts, so Witten-Bell smoothing)
+ a few more steps (gap filling)
Results:
For any given environment (tooth, gut, etc.), the same basic pathways are present at about the same abundance, but the species/taxons vary greatly in abundance.
Further, all pathways/functions available everywhere, with local enrichment for those which are locally usefull.
software/links
huttenhower.sph.harvard.edu
Look for Valm et al PNAS 2011 on the tooth metagenome
Christel Kamp epi spread and network
Topology of network influences epidemic spread, but infection status changes network topology.
Given my contacts, what is the probability that I am [S,I,R]?
What is the trajectory of the average degree of the network?
Allow migrants-- this can have a huge effect on the epidemic outcome.
Maureen Stolzer- phylogenetic inference for multifunction proteins
Multi domain proteins are prevalent and functionally important.
Hard to align, since the many side domains have different sequences.
define reference tree from main element.
Build trees using other domains, and perturb them to match ref tree.
Luis Serrano- protein dynamics in small bacteria
Few known transcription factors, yet complex behavior- we are missing something.
Metabolic factors are central to many cellular functions, and can work as transcription regulators.
Making proteins is expensive, 90% of cells energy, while rna is cheap.
See also pictures.
Monday, July 18, 2011
What I am seeing in many of the leading talks
The author has an approach which they have developed and refined over several publications.
Paul Horton- LAST for sequence alignment
2 ideas.
Replace hash table with suffix array (adoptive seeds), up to 100x speedup.
Add read quality score to alignment penalty.
Available from
Last.cbrc.jp
Ankur Parikh TREEGL
Tree evolving networks.
Learn network by choosing one gene as Y and others as betas, then lasso to find betas predictive of Y.
Extends this by adding a second penalty which reduces the variation in the betas in two regressions, where the second regression is fit to a daughter node of the first experiment.
I.e. same cell before, during, and after treatment.
Janet Thornton- evolution of enzyme mechanisms and functional diversity
Grand vision- an arrow showing the pathway for bioinformatics:
Dictionary-- the parts (genes,proteins,etc)
Thesaurus-- the interactions
Circuit diagram-- the biological networks
Atlas-- where (and when) it happetns.
We are only at the thesaurus stage
Data doubles every 5 months
Comparing, clustering, evolution of bio chemistry.
Most enzyme evolution (90%) is within the same enzyme class, adopting to either a new substrate or new product.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
What do people want from pop science?
What sells? What gets published?
Need human element, people want to know the inside story. But that isn't really my strong point...
Want to know how things work. This I can do.
Throw in spiritual element. Example- Torula-- need and value of minority elements. When the sit does hit the fan, as it will, the minority element will be what saves us all. Rather, one of the minority elements. and we won't know which one it is until after.
true for virus/fungus/etc, but misses that all people are made in the image and likeness of God- we are all glorious.
Logbook
Reading an old book on navigation. He explains how you measure the distance traveled using the "log" a piece of wood trailed behind the boat. He remarks that one should read the distance traveled from the log, and write it in the log book.
Etimology?
Making sense of the hairball
by Natasa Przulj
Network topology contains biological data. Topological structures are preserved across species
Wrote software for network alignment:
GRAAL
MI-GRAAL
basic approach is seed and extend.
MI allows nodes to have similarity values, which provide additional information for the alignment.
degree of node and connection pattern defines 'graphlets'
Graph crunch software.
See also Isorank, by Bonnie Berger's lab.
Network topology contains biological data. Topological structures are preserved across species
Wrote software for network alignment:
GRAAL
MI-GRAAL
basic approach is seed and extend.
MI allows nodes to have similarity values, which provide additional information for the alignment.
degree of node and connection pattern defines 'graphlets'
Graph crunch software.
See also Isorank, by Bonnie Berger's lab.
Evolutionary priors in GWAS studies
By Joel Dudley
SNPs are conserved with different probability.
Using these probabilities in GWAS studies can boost probability, and lift interesting borderline genes into significance.
Gives better performance than the___ study.
Viral evolution: stray thoughts
Detecting changes in the fitness landscape.Species density gives an estimate of the fitness function.Changes in density reflect changes in this function.
The virus changes the landscape by killing all the T-cells. Some think this leads the switch from r5 to x4 species.
Proportions only tell part of the story, also need population levels
The virus changes the landscape by killing all the T-cells. Some think this leads the switch from r5 to x4 species.
Proportions only tell part of the story, also need population levels
Otto Habsburg
The last of the dynasty, would have been the emperor of Austria had the 20th century turned out differently. Lived much of his life in exile, active in German politics.
He was buried on Saturday, but his heart was buried in Hungary. It was his wish, and an old family tradition.
He was buried on Saturday, but his heart was buried in Hungary. It was his wish, and an old family tradition.
DE novo assembly for mixed species
By Yu Peng
De novo assembly is confused by regions which are shared across species. May also have sub species.
The graph splits at each similar region. With sub species, the separate paths trend to converge. With different species, they do not.
Friday, July 15, 2011
The power of cliche
America, land of cliche
Drawn from an editorial in the 14 july ht (the day after the mumbia bombing). Some harvard buds school profs selling evidence based management as the new trend. Fact- evidence- realty- based The author's point is that all of these are stupid or obvious ideas.
My take: cliche sells, since that out how people think (Hume). Saying the cliches well is what matters.
It helps that I think I remember why evidence based medicine came it. The author suggested that divination was the opposite choice, but no, there was a real problem.
From wikipedia, on the history of EBM
Traces of evidence-based medicine's origin can be found in ancient Greece,[19][25] Although testing medical interventions for efficacy has existed since the time of Avicenna's The Canon of Medicine in the 11th century,[26][27] it was only in the 20th century that this effort evolved to impact almost all fields of health care and policy. Professor Archie Cochrane, a Scottish epidemiologist, through his book Effectiveness and Efficiency: Random Reflections on Health Services (1972) and subsequent advocacy, caused increasing acceptance of the concepts behind evidence-based practice
Drawn from an editorial in the 14 july ht (the day after the mumbia bombing). Some harvard buds school profs selling evidence based management as the new trend. Fact- evidence- realty- based
My take: cliche sells, since that out how people think (Hume). Saying the cliches well is what matters.
It helps that I think I remember why evidence based medicine came it. The author suggested that divination was the opposite choice, but no, there was a real problem.
From wikipedia, on the history of EBM
Traces of evidence-based medicine's origin can be found in ancient Greece,[19][25] Although testing medical interventions for efficacy has existed since the time of Avicenna's The Canon of Medicine in the 11th century,[26][27] it was only in the 20th century that this effort evolved to impact almost all fields of health care and policy. Professor Archie Cochrane, a Scottish epidemiologist, through his book Effectiveness and Efficiency: Random Reflections on Health Services (1972) and subsequent advocacy, caused increasing acceptance of the concepts behind evidence-based practice
Evolutionary modelling for finance
Why evolutionary modling makes sense for finance:
Linear models don't.they assume a steady state our at least equilibrium state with normal variation which can be explained by some covariates
Finance has no steady state.
How to map market onto a species space? Equity prices? Price histories? Prediction functions?
Maybe all of those are genes,, do we add regulatory genes?,, how do we build an animal?
Over what timescale do we measure fitness, measure returns?
Linear models don't.they assume a steady state our at least equilibrium state with normal variation which can be explained by some covariates
Finance has no steady state.
How to map market onto a species space? Equity prices? Price histories? Prediction functions?
Maybe all of those are genes,, do we add regulatory genes?,, how do we build an animal?
Over what timescale do we measure fitness, measure returns?
Thoughts from the voyage
Saw a book in the airport proporting a history of bad ideas. Sounds like a fun read!
Command post of the Future
Man, machine interface. Doug Engelbart's (of ARPA) vision of the computer as enhancing the human intellect requires people also to grow to meet the machine. Chording keyboard allows one handed typing.
Also wanted to change how groups intact. Hence command post of the future. Uses data structures designed to allow putting human knowledge into a computer dstabase mind, to allow command staff to input all of their plans on the same map, and visualize it. Opps guy develops a plan, drags it over to the logistics guy's map and he can work on how to support it. Commander can see it all, our zoom in to one user's map.
from The Department of Mad Scientists, a horribly written book about the founding of ARPA.
Also wanted to change how groups intact. Hence command post of the future. Uses data structures designed to allow putting human knowledge into a computer dstabase mind, to allow command staff to input all of their plans on the same map, and visualize it. Opps guy develops a plan, drags it over to the logistics guy's map and he can work on how to support it. Commander can see it all, our zoom in to one user's map.
from The Department of Mad Scientists, a horribly written book about the founding of ARPA.
re: tea party
Hi, Glenn - How things are evolving now is that the Tea Party is about No Compromise, end of story. Unfortunately democratic government can't work without compromise; hence the current stalemate at the State, and I suspect soon at the national level as well.
I see it as the secular equivalent of the Christian Right (and with considerable overlap in membership, sympathies, and demographics), holding unshakably to a doctrinal position that cannot be compromised without losing your moral integrity and indeed very soul & identity. At this point it has simplified down to "No New Taxes," period, not even to something as relatively sophisticated as cutting taxes as a means to cutting back government. In the same way some hold to a 6-day creation is the token of all truth, even to the point that one doesn't worry about any other point of doctrine. If you're sound on the literal truth of a 6 day creation that's all that matters; they simply assume that therefore "you believe what the Bible says" and can be trusted to be sound on all the rest.
As of today, 38% of Minnesota's beer supply has been cut off, due to the expiration of the Miller/Coors license to sell in Minnesota, which cannot be renewed as long as the appropriate state office is closed. This does not win you many friends among the general populace. Nor does the fact that c. 3/4th of the legislators are continuing to draw their pay checks, even though they are not doing their job, again something that everyone can relate to and be disgusted with -- you don't even have to be one of the 40,000 state employees who have been laid off. Lists of names are now being published in the papers, so you can tell who is still paying themselves and who (including the Governor) has foregone their salaries.
And yes, it does have a demographic element. In some ways it's all about people who were so uptight when they were in their 20's that they missed the 60's (the civil rights & anti-war movements, pot & free love, Haight-Ashbury, the Beetles, etc.), so now that they're in their 60's they want to have their retroactive counter-cultural fling, only given the rest of their context they come at it from the political right rather than from the left, as in the 60's. In many ways one feels that pity is the appropriate response -- having failed to live life when young, they are trying to make up for it now, when it is at best faintly ridiculous, and at worst politically suicidal, as I think public opinion is turning against them.
Apparently there is real pain in Washington within the mainline Republican leadership, who realize that the Tea Party is likely to sink their ship, but can't divorce them either because they are a main source of support, and largely control who gets killed in the primaries.
In other words, you may be in for exciting times when you come. And at least no one is throwing bombs, as in Mumbai, but I do wonder at what point the frustration here may spill over into violence.
Love, Dad
I see it as the secular equivalent of the Christian Right (and with considerable overlap in membership, sympathies, and demographics), holding unshakably to a doctrinal position that cannot be compromised without losing your moral integrity and indeed very soul & identity. At this point it has simplified down to "No New Taxes," period, not even to something as relatively sophisticated as cutting taxes as a means to cutting back government. In the same way some hold to a 6-day creation is the token of all truth, even to the point that one doesn't worry about any other point of doctrine. If you're sound on the literal truth of a 6 day creation that's all that matters; they simply assume that therefore "you believe what the Bible says" and can be trusted to be sound on all the rest.
As of today, 38% of Minnesota's beer supply has been cut off, due to the expiration of the Miller/Coors license to sell in Minnesota, which cannot be renewed as long as the appropriate state office is closed. This does not win you many friends among the general populace. Nor does the fact that c. 3/4th of the legislators are continuing to draw their pay checks, even though they are not doing their job, again something that everyone can relate to and be disgusted with -- you don't even have to be one of the 40,000 state employees who have been laid off. Lists of names are now being published in the papers, so you can tell who is still paying themselves and who (including the Governor) has foregone their salaries.
And yes, it does have a demographic element. In some ways it's all about people who were so uptight when they were in their 20's that they missed the 60's (the civil rights & anti-war movements, pot & free love, Haight-Ashbury, the Beetles, etc.), so now that they're in their 60's they want to have their retroactive counter-cultural fling, only given the rest of their context they come at it from the political right rather than from the left, as in the 60's. In many ways one feels that pity is the appropriate response -- having failed to live life when young, they are trying to make up for it now, when it is at best faintly ridiculous, and at worst politically suicidal, as I think public opinion is turning against them.
Apparently there is real pain in Washington within the mainline Republican leadership, who realize that the Tea Party is likely to sink their ship, but can't divorce them either because they are a main source of support, and largely control who gets killed in the primaries.
In other words, you may be in for exciting times when you come. And at least no one is throwing bombs, as in Mumbai, but I do wonder at what point the frustration here may spill over into violence.
Love, Dad
Collaboration based research
Approach taken by Prof. Anthony Kusalik, from a conversation at the ISMB conference.
And a great cliche
He is a computer scientist, and finds biologists with wet labs. Confirm computational results with lab work. Has to get commitment from lab before working with them.
Echos:
1)Cliche-driven society column.
2)E. Cahn's 2nd economy, collaboration/value work from both sides.
3) Prince concert- strong sense that the concert was something we created together (so of course we could tape/record it) "I sang for you, now you sing for me"
Network structure
1) Nature re-uses ideas.
2) social networks reflect structure of society-- the human hive mind.
3) ants/bees also have well studied hive minds.
4) what network homologies exist between 2 and 3? Other systems (schooling fish, herd animals, flocks)?
Idea inspired by a comment from Nadya.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
science as a priesthood
Rough sketch of a rough idea:
As an outgrowth of the Victorian age & their faith in science and technology, today science is seen as a voice of truth, if not the voice of truth, because of its ability to explain our origins etc.
Thus the strong movement in religion to have God somehow explain everything. Only recently have people tried to read the first chapters of Genesis as a literal text.
This is an attempt to return religion to its rightful place, but is rather the wrong method for doing so. Religion cannot beat science in the domain of science, not without perverting it. Religion has another domain.
Which modern society seems to downplay.
Perhaps society is too left-brain? Mcgilchrist.
As an outgrowth of the Victorian age & their faith in science and technology, today science is seen as a voice of truth, if not the voice of truth, because of its ability to explain our origins etc.
Thus the strong movement in religion to have God somehow explain everything. Only recently have people tried to read the first chapters of Genesis as a literal text.
This is an attempt to return religion to its rightful place, but is rather the wrong method for doing so. Religion cannot beat science in the domain of science, not without perverting it. Religion has another domain.
Which modern society seems to downplay.
Perhaps society is too left-brain? Mcgilchrist.
Hume, 300 years on
Speakers weren't that good, but were saved by the topic.
Hume did not go for the prevailing understanding that reason was the guide, or organizing principle, or the source of knowledge. Extremely controversial
He saw the driver of the mind as the imagination, and the organizational principle to be the culture and society in which the individual lived.
As one consequence, any body of knowledge built on a foundation of 'reason' was in fact built on a foundation of mud. He was especially critical of religion, which did not earn him many friends.
He investigated culture primarily in terms of the means of obtaining substinance and in terms of the distribution of property/wealth.
Most famous, however, for his history of England, which was a best seller and is still considered a great work
Hume did not go for the prevailing understanding that reason was the guide, or organizing principle, or the source of knowledge. Extremely controversial
He saw the driver of the mind as the imagination, and the organizational principle to be the culture and society in which the individual lived.
As one consequence, any body of knowledge built on a foundation of 'reason' was in fact built on a foundation of mud. He was especially critical of religion, which did not earn him many friends.
He investigated culture primarily in terms of the means of obtaining substinance and in terms of the distribution of property/wealth.
Most famous, however, for his history of England, which was a best seller and is still considered a great work
Jung
Forget the speakers, but a retrospective on Jung.
So much that I should have known back at the time when I was more into this sort of thing. I guess I did know it, but not explicitly.
Part of Jung's interest in the occult comes from his upbringing, which was filled with it. Seances, etc were normal parts of his childhood.
He wrote about the age of aquarius in 1940.
Unifying the self (vs Freud, uncover and remove the junk)
Universal human architypes.
So much that I should have known back at the time when I was more into this sort of thing. I guess I did know it, but not explicitly.
Part of Jung's interest in the occult comes from his upbringing, which was filled with it. Seances, etc were normal parts of his childhood.
He wrote about the age of aquarius in 1940.
Unifying the self (vs Freud, uncover and remove the junk)
Universal human architypes.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Ending HIV in Africa
Sven Eric tells me that Hans Rosling says
"We can stop HIV if only we had a test that could tell us when the patient contracted the virus"
http://lindau.nature.com/lindau/2011/07/panel-discussion-global-health-lindau-nobel-laureate-meeting-2011
If I had a good time-evolving model, showing the distribution of types at each year, I could estimate the probability of the year the person became infected.
"We can stop HIV if only we had a test that could tell us when the patient contracted the virus"
http://lindau.nature.com/lindau/2011/07/panel-discussion-global-health-lindau-nobel-laureate-meeting-2011
If I had a good time-evolving model, showing the distribution of types at each year, I could estimate the probability of the year the person became infected.
Bethany McLean 12/02/2010 "All the devils are still with us"
Bethany McLean is the journalist who uncovered the Enron scandal, and was penalized for this, just days before the company went tits up. This book looks at the current mess.
She starts with her bio. Math/English major, grunt job at GS, grunt job at Fortune (or a similar mag), turns it into a bi-weekly column "Stocks to watch" where she finds companies with a great story and hypes them. Learns cynicism-- great stories don't make great companies, and people cook the books.
So she writes about Enron, and gets it right.
Now she has written about the credit mess. The usual fault is human greed and incompetence.
Does it all as human stories. that's what Journalists do. Founder of countrywide sees homeownership as a boon, wants it for everyone, and wants his company to be the biggest in the world. So he offers any kind of mortgage that anyone else offers, and takes the same shortcuts needed to compete (short-term).
Don't underestimate incompetence.
Bad incentives lead to bad behavior.
Nothing has been fixed.
She is a horrid speaker, full of word-stuttering (repeating a phrase 3 times), but I think I would like to be her friend.
She starts with her bio. Math/English major, grunt job at GS, grunt job at Fortune (or a similar mag), turns it into a bi-weekly column "Stocks to watch" where she finds companies with a great story and hypes them. Learns cynicism-- great stories don't make great companies, and people cook the books.
So she writes about Enron, and gets it right.
Now she has written about the credit mess. The usual fault is human greed and incompetence.
Does it all as human stories. that's what Journalists do. Founder of countrywide sees homeownership as a boon, wants it for everyone, and wants his company to be the biggest in the world. So he offers any kind of mortgage that anyone else offers, and takes the same shortcuts needed to compete (short-term).
Don't underestimate incompetence.
Bad incentives lead to bad behavior.
Nothing has been fixed.
She is a horrid speaker, full of word-stuttering (repeating a phrase 3 times), but I think I would like to be her friend.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Ben Okri 4 april 2011
Brevity-- so much chatter, books are long, newspapers are long. Write something short.
Big theme: adversity and overcoming.
Each people must find its own vision of who they are.
Japan's recovery after WWII
Sent the link to my Mom, as Ben's philosphy reminds me so much of her
Sunday, July 10, 2011
risk or uncertainty
known unkowns and unkown unkowns.
Or, risk describes the "spread" of a known probability distribution - for example, the chance that you'll roll something other than a 7 given that you know you're throwing two six-sided dice. Uncertainty emerges when you don't even know whether the dice have six sides, so you are forced to entjavascript:void(0)ertain the possibility that your entire model of the world is incorrect.
Quote from Hussman
His approach is to use an ensemble model, which gives a measure of the uncertainty
Or, risk describes the "spread" of a known probability distribution - for example, the chance that you'll roll something other than a 7 given that you know you're throwing two six-sided dice. Uncertainty emerges when you don't even know whether the dice have six sides, so you are forced to entjavascript:void(0)ertain the possibility that your entire model of the world is incorrect.
Quote from Hussman
His approach is to use an ensemble model, which gives a measure of the uncertainty
extroverts and introverts
The extrovert's problem is finding someone to listen to them. Offer them an ear, and you have a friend for life.
The introvert, however, just wants to be left alone. Ignore them, and you have a friend for life
The introvert, however, just wants to be left alone. Ignore them, and you have a friend for life
Creative breakthrough
I remember a kitten which I was training to stalk and pounce. I would wiggle one hand as the target, lying on the floor. When the kitten came in,i would clap with the other hand. The kitten tried time and again, all of the standard cat stalking strategies.I regret to this day that I did not let it succeed more often. But my biggest regret is that I clapped away one of the biggest breakthroughs I have ever seen. After many minutes of normal stalking strategies, the kitten, with a gleam in her eye, tried using the "cozy/pet me" dance to sneak within range.
That, gentlemen, defines the creative breakthrough.
That, gentlemen, defines the creative breakthrough.
project organizer
A to-do list, and a progress bar which shows how much work you have put into it & also how much you have to go.
Default shows it as started (just writing it down is starting)
List can be re-organized and tagged.
but let's not get carried away.
Default shows it as started (just writing it down is starting)
List can be re-organized and tagged.
but let's not get carried away.
cracking lottery codes
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1
a tic-tac-toe game. On the right were eight tic-tac-toe boards, dense with different numbers. On the left was a box headlined “Your Numbers,” covered with a scratchable latex coating. If three of “Your Numbers” appeared on a board in a straight line, you’d won.
Mohan Srivastava, trained in geological statistics, reasoned that the numbers are not random, as the makers need to control the number of winners. The patterns would follow rules of geological stats. “But that night, as I passed the station, I heard a little voice coming from the back of my head. I’ll never forget what it said: ‘If you do it that way, if you use that algorithm, there will be a flaw. The game will be flawed. You will be able to crack the ticket. You will be able to plunder the lottery.’”
The trick itself is ridiculously simple. Each ticket contained eight tic-tac-toe boards, and each space on those boards contained an exposed number from 1 to 39. As a result, some of these numbers were repeated multiple times. A few numbers appeared only once on the entire card. Srivastava categorized each number according to its frequency. Srivastava was looking for singletons, numbers that appear only a single time on the visible tic-tac-toe boards. singletons were almost always repeated under the latex coating. If three singletons appeared in a row on one of the eight boards, that ticket was probably a winner.
a tic-tac-toe game. On the right were eight tic-tac-toe boards, dense with different numbers. On the left was a box headlined “Your Numbers,” covered with a scratchable latex coating. If three of “Your Numbers” appeared on a board in a straight line, you’d won.
Mohan Srivastava, trained in geological statistics, reasoned that the numbers are not random, as the makers need to control the number of winners. The patterns would follow rules of geological stats. “But that night, as I passed the station, I heard a little voice coming from the back of my head. I’ll never forget what it said: ‘If you do it that way, if you use that algorithm, there will be a flaw. The game will be flawed. You will be able to crack the ticket. You will be able to plunder the lottery.’”
The trick itself is ridiculously simple. Each ticket contained eight tic-tac-toe boards, and each space on those boards contained an exposed number from 1 to 39. As a result, some of these numbers were repeated multiple times. A few numbers appeared only once on the entire card. Srivastava categorized each number according to its frequency. Srivastava was looking for singletons, numbers that appear only a single time on the visible tic-tac-toe boards. singletons were almost always repeated under the latex coating. If three singletons appeared in a row on one of the eight boards, that ticket was probably a winner.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Stray quotes and ideas
You can find a needle in a haystack, but first you have to find the haystack.
What if the default in the calendar was not blank space, but rather "thinking" or "planning"
The Ikea effect. You work so hard to build the stuff that you value it much more than it is worth.
re: republicans, the party of fear
Hi, Glenn - Sounds interesting. You mentioned FDR's first inaugural (the only thing we have to fear is fear itself) You should check out the fuller context on line -- his words describing the prevailing economic distress sound remarkably apt for the situation today, which makes his words all the more salient. With each passing year the man's greatness strikes me more clearly -- he and Churchill.
We included the FDR paragraph in our readings of American sources that we did in place of the sermon at church on the 3rd of July, which had a 4th of July theme. Others were parts of the Dec. of Independence, some MLK jr. speeches, Maya Angelou, Robert Frost's "The Gift Outright" ("The land was ours before we were the land's . . . ") JFK's inaugural, etc. It was very moving, many tears in many eyes, a powerful & much-needed reminder of who we can be at our best, especially in the context of our present situation in the state which is pretty much showing us (or at least the Republicans among us) at our worst.
I am much concerned that the dynamics in the state are the same as at the national level, which means we are watching a dress rehearsal on the Minnesota level for what could become a major national economic & constitutional crisis nationally come August or so.
Love, Dad
We included the FDR paragraph in our readings of American sources that we did in place of the sermon at church on the 3rd of July, which had a 4th of July theme. Others were parts of the Dec. of Independence, some MLK jr. speeches, Maya Angelou, Robert Frost's "The Gift Outright" ("The land was ours before we were the land's . . . ") JFK's inaugural, etc. It was very moving, many tears in many eyes, a powerful & much-needed reminder of who we can be at our best, especially in the context of our present situation in the state which is pretty much showing us (or at least the Republicans among us) at our worst.
I am much concerned that the dynamics in the state are the same as at the national level, which means we are watching a dress rehearsal on the Minnesota level for what could become a major national economic & constitutional crisis nationally come August or so.
Love, Dad
Thursday, July 7, 2011
HIV-- we can beat it
Title of a book I want to write.
Do a history of the disease, and how we can beat it. Bioinformatics and pharmacuticles.
Do a history of the disease, and how we can beat it. Bioinformatics and pharmacuticles.
Edgar Cahn 5/12/2011
Activist, attorney, iterant troublemanker Edgar Cahn gave a brilliant lecture.
He has three topics: pizza, operating systems, and the pirus.
Pizza. You can deliver pizza, you can deliver products, but you cannot deliver justice, community, or human values. Those items require all parties to participate.
Examples.
Juvinile Court. Allowed to try all non-violent youth crime in DC. The jurors are teenagers. The court can sentence offenders to jury duty. Trial by your peers. The kids buy into the justice because they ARE the justice system. And they start to behave.
The Homecommers. People who didn't want to be called ex-cons. Started volunteering for community service. Cut recidivisim by huge amounts.
Operating system.
Our economy is based on so much more than money, but money is currently the only measure.
The problem with money. Money values things that are rare. Common things have little or no economic value. Thus, the things which make us human, which are intrinsic to all humanity, which are found in every person, have no monetary value.
Pirus.
Need to build a two-fuel economy. We still need money, but that should be the gas, the bit that gets used the least and is only there when the other just doesn't quite make it. The other, the respect for every human's worth, should be the main fuel.
That ended his talk. But one of the questions brought out another fantastic zinger. Mr. Cahn, after pointing out that public officials are the only professionals who are not required to act according to the best knowledge (malpractice in doctors, forget the term for attorneys, also applies to engineers, etc).
The way to show discriminatory behavor by courts is NOT to look backwards at cases tried (more blacks then whites sent to jail, etc), but forwards. Make them aware of what best practices are, what works, and what consequences different options have. Then, if they don't change, you can show that they have INTENDED the discriminatory outcomes.
He has three topics: pizza, operating systems, and the pirus.
Pizza. You can deliver pizza, you can deliver products, but you cannot deliver justice, community, or human values. Those items require all parties to participate.
Examples.
Juvinile Court. Allowed to try all non-violent youth crime in DC. The jurors are teenagers. The court can sentence offenders to jury duty. Trial by your peers. The kids buy into the justice because they ARE the justice system. And they start to behave.
The Homecommers. People who didn't want to be called ex-cons. Started volunteering for community service. Cut recidivisim by huge amounts.
Operating system.
Our economy is based on so much more than money, but money is currently the only measure.
The problem with money. Money values things that are rare. Common things have little or no economic value. Thus, the things which make us human, which are intrinsic to all humanity, which are found in every person, have no monetary value.
Pirus.
Need to build a two-fuel economy. We still need money, but that should be the gas, the bit that gets used the least and is only there when the other just doesn't quite make it. The other, the respect for every human's worth, should be the main fuel.
That ended his talk. But one of the questions brought out another fantastic zinger. Mr. Cahn, after pointing out that public officials are the only professionals who are not required to act according to the best knowledge (malpractice in doctors, forget the term for attorneys, also applies to engineers, etc).
The way to show discriminatory behavor by courts is NOT to look backwards at cases tried (more blacks then whites sent to jail, etc), but forwards. Make them aware of what best practices are, what works, and what consequences different options have. Then, if they don't change, you can show that they have INTENDED the discriminatory outcomes.
Diane Coyle
Economist, wrote some books on sustainable growth. Lots of quick, focused answers which support her view and ignore any difficulties raised by the questioner.
An idea from the discussion (not hers): Capitalism gains much of its legitimacy from the claim that it improves the lives of everyone. But in the last years* it has only improved the lot of the upper few percent. Is capitalism facing a crisis of legitimacy?
*US incomes for middle class stable or declining since the 70's (that is 40 years now, two generations). Other examples from other countries, I am sure.
What this ignores is the tremendous gains in quality and variety of stuff. Cell phones, internet, etc all are near universally accessible now. The possibilities offered to the poor are much greater than they were 40 years ago.
She disagrees with the claim that increasing GDP does not lead to increasing happiness, noting that happiness is measured on a fixed scale while GDP can (theoretically) grow without limit. If one compares log(GDP) [which does have a limit] with happiness, then increasing GDP does associate with increasing happiness.
Need to work on my rant on this topic...
Next idea: Our society is suffering from a lack of faith in the future. No sense of progress, unlike (say) the Victorian age. This is another topic to develop further...
An idea from the discussion (not hers): Capitalism gains much of its legitimacy from the claim that it improves the lives of everyone. But in the last years* it has only improved the lot of the upper few percent. Is capitalism facing a crisis of legitimacy?
*US incomes for middle class stable or declining since the 70's (that is 40 years now, two generations). Other examples from other countries, I am sure.
What this ignores is the tremendous gains in quality and variety of stuff. Cell phones, internet, etc all are near universally accessible now. The possibilities offered to the poor are much greater than they were 40 years ago.
She disagrees with the claim that increasing GDP does not lead to increasing happiness, noting that happiness is measured on a fixed scale while GDP can (theoretically) grow without limit. If one compares log(GDP) [which does have a limit] with happiness, then increasing GDP does associate with increasing happiness.
Need to work on my rant on this topic...
Next idea: Our society is suffering from a lack of faith in the future. No sense of progress, unlike (say) the Victorian age. This is another topic to develop further...
Bruce Alexander
Studies drug addiction, and the associated social problems.
Considers the last 100 years to have been increasing in drug addiction problems (perhaps he missed the previous century? I really wonder if things have been getting worse, or if it is a steady state).
Suggests that the real problem is "homelessness of the soul" a beautiful phrase which captures the dissassociation in which people on the fringe live.
Considers the last 100 years to have been increasing in drug addiction problems (perhaps he missed the previous century? I really wonder if things have been getting worse, or if it is a steady state).
Suggests that the real problem is "homelessness of the soul" a beautiful phrase which captures the dissassociation in which people on the fringe live.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
re: republicans, the party of fear
I do think they are afraid, of many things and can't bring themselves to be risk takers in the name of love for the other. In a way I feel sorry for them. It is difficult to live fully when you are so driven to be self protective.
FDR said very soundly, The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
Blessings and love, mom
FDR said very soundly, The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
Blessings and love, mom
republicans, the party of fear
Dear Mom,
Gareth Cook's column in the Herald Trib ("Trusting your instincts") made me think of you. Bear with me, because it take a few points to build it up to where you come in.
He looks at what psychology has to say about morality, and starts with Jonathin Haidt's theory that everyone is born with 5 moral senses: fairness, not harming others, loyalty to group, respecting authority, and moral purity.
The next step is the observation that in today's US politics, liberals emphasize the first two of these, while conservatives use all 5 (with an emphasis on the last three). Gareth writes that several studies have shown that this is plausible. This allows one to argue that a liberal is really just a stunted conservative.
Gareth then goes on to look at new research which suggests that actually it goes the other way. The study was done by Jennifer Write, who reasons that if humans are inherently conservative, then all 5 would occur without effort. To test these, she gave people the standard moral values and political leanings tests, but constantly distracted the test takers. Then everyone responded like a liberal, only responding to the first two values.
Wright's conclusion is that the other three are threat responses. SO she (or is it Gareth) concludes that we are not a nation divided by basic moral values, but rather by fear.
Now this ties in to a comment you made several years ago. You said you didn't like the republicans because their message was all fear, all the time. I agreed, and we thought it was because they believed that if they could keep the country scared, they could keep power.
But perhaps it runs deeper than a political strategy. Maybe they project a message of fear because they are themselves in a state of fear.
Love,
+glenn
Gareth Cook's column in the Herald Trib ("Trusting your instincts") made me think of you. Bear with me, because it take a few points to build it up to where you come in.
He looks at what psychology has to say about morality, and starts with Jonathin Haidt's theory that everyone is born with 5 moral senses: fairness, not harming others, loyalty to group, respecting authority, and moral purity.
The next step is the observation that in today's US politics, liberals emphasize the first two of these, while conservatives use all 5 (with an emphasis on the last three). Gareth writes that several studies have shown that this is plausible. This allows one to argue that a liberal is really just a stunted conservative.
Gareth then goes on to look at new research which suggests that actually it goes the other way. The study was done by Jennifer Write, who reasons that if humans are inherently conservative, then all 5 would occur without effort. To test these, she gave people the standard moral values and political leanings tests, but constantly distracted the test takers. Then everyone responded like a liberal, only responding to the first two values.
Wright's conclusion is that the other three are threat responses. SO she (or is it Gareth) concludes that we are not a nation divided by basic moral values, but rather by fear.
Now this ties in to a comment you made several years ago. You said you didn't like the republicans because their message was all fear, all the time. I agreed, and we thought it was because they believed that if they could keep the country scared, they could keep power.
But perhaps it runs deeper than a political strategy. Maybe they project a message of fear because they are themselves in a state of fear.
Love,
+glenn
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
The solution to the world's economic crisis
The world economy is based on a model of continual growth. Even a fool recognizes that infinite growth is not sustainable in a finite space (ie, earth). The solution: virtual shoppers.
Virtual shoppers. An army of internet robot consumers. Infinite consumption, allowing for infinite growth.
New trend in eating-- web startups
a host of new consumer web startups have mushroomed to fill in some gaps and create interesting new ways for us to chow down. New companies like Gobble and Grubly create local peer-to-peer marketplaces for homecooked meals that are either delivered or available for pickup. these services help home cooks build up a reputation (and a little extra income). Kitchit’s aim is slightly different, to free those who actually make the food (the cooks) and bring them into our homes so that we can have friends over for dinner and turn our apartments and houses into restaurants.
Clipped from
http://techcrunch.com/2011/07/04/the-way-we-eat/
by semil shah
Clipped from
http://techcrunch.com/2011/07/04/the-way-we-eat/
by semil shah
re: re: Minnesota shutdown
Re-- student loans. The reason people should lend them thousands of money without collateral is that student loans are not covered by bankrupcy-- the only ways out (except paying them off, of course) are death or moving all of your assets out of US jurisdiction.
They figure they have on average a lifetimes worth of earnings they can garnish to get their money back, at 8.5% interest. Not bad, when inflation is running close to nil.
Did you know you can buy CDOs of student loans, just like the CDOs of house loans that caused some trouble a little while ago? But the thing with homeonwners is that they can default on the mortgage and your deathgrip becomes only a deathgrip on a house worth a fraction of the loan amount.
Now with a student loan, that deathgrip is a little more inclusive.
I am working on an essay titled "The Immorality of Debt", or rather I should be when not busy working on amphetamine (it is a hobby) [yes, that is a joke. I am working, as a hobby, on my second publication which demonstrates the harm that amphetamine usage causes to the brain and no, I am not one of the research subjects] or my zombie paper or my UW photo essay or my android apps which I should develop, oh, and did I forget that I am a father, husband, house-holder, and did someone mention that I also have a day job?
+glenn
They figure they have on average a lifetimes worth of earnings they can garnish to get their money back, at 8.5% interest. Not bad, when inflation is running close to nil.
Did you know you can buy CDOs of student loans, just like the CDOs of house loans that caused some trouble a little while ago? But the thing with homeonwners is that they can default on the mortgage and your deathgrip becomes only a deathgrip on a house worth a fraction of the loan amount.
Now with a student loan, that deathgrip is a little more inclusive.
I am working on an essay titled "The Immorality of Debt", or rather I should be when not busy working on amphetamine (it is a hobby) [yes, that is a joke. I am working, as a hobby, on my second publication which demonstrates the harm that amphetamine usage causes to the brain and no, I am not one of the research subjects] or my zombie paper or my UW photo essay or my android apps which I should develop, oh, and did I forget that I am a father, husband, house-holder, and did someone mention that I also have a day job?
+glenn
re: Minnesota shutdown
Hi, Glenn- Sounds like you and Puppy are in the same camp with respect to human nature. Yes, I agree about the advantages of a shut down. From my experience with Bethel students, mostly heritage Republicans, very few realize how big a positive role government has had in their lives. E.G., most women didn't realize there would be no women's athletic programs without Title 9 of the Civil Rights Act; they just hold that women's athletics is natural and right, so of course it's there, but not particularly as a policy result. Or student loan guarantees: Why shouldn't someone lend them thousands of dollars at low interest without collateral -- they're good people, after all, don't intend to default, and are spending it for a good cause. When they think of "gummimint" it's usually the things they disagree with.
Minnesota shutdown
The good that I hope comes out of the MN situation is that people realize they actually enjoy government services. Unlikely, but still one can always hope.
My counterexampe comes from a news story a year or two ago covering a gathering of the tea-party faithful. 90% of the people in attendance relied to a greater or lesser extent DIRECTLY on government support (medicade-paid scooters, etc) not to mention indirect, as in they drove on public roads to get to the event which was held in a public building etc yet seemed blind to the fact that they were calling for an elimination of these benefits.
I'd like to have a happier opinion of humanity but people make it so damn difficult.
+glenn
My counterexampe comes from a news story a year or two ago covering a gathering of the tea-party faithful. 90% of the people in attendance relied to a greater or lesser extent DIRECTLY on government support (medicade-paid scooters, etc) not to mention indirect, as in they drove on public roads to get to the event which was held in a public building etc yet seemed blind to the fact that they were calling for an elimination of these benefits.
I'd like to have a happier opinion of humanity but people make it so damn difficult.
+glenn
re: re: re: the Greeks
Hi, Glenn- Best explanation I heard was that money was moving into dollars as long as the Greek situation was unresolved, but that now that a temporary patch is in place (good for six months), the flow might reverse out of dollars and into euro; i.e., New York looked good in comparison with Athens.
Meanwhile the state of Minnesota is shut down, with no immediate likelihood of resolution. Odd that the Republicans, who presumably favor jobs, jobs, jobs, have just unemployed something like 30,000 people; and who presumably are most concerned about the business climate of the state, have just given it a big national black eye in that respect as well, since various licenses & other such services are no longer available. I put it down more to incompetence than explicit malice/hypocrisy, but the results are much the same. People are getting really disgusted; and given how well governed the state was in the last half century, it all seems so gratuitous. Oh, and did I mention that the legislators have decided to keep on paying their own salaries, even though everyone else is fired, arguing that since they are the ones who have to work on a solution they need to continue to get paid so that they can resolve the mess. That's the sort of thing that will really rile Minnesotans up, I hope, and I don't think they even realize how self-serving it sounds.
Meanwhile the state of Minnesota is shut down, with no immediate likelihood of resolution. Odd that the Republicans, who presumably favor jobs, jobs, jobs, have just unemployed something like 30,000 people; and who presumably are most concerned about the business climate of the state, have just given it a big national black eye in that respect as well, since various licenses & other such services are no longer available. I put it down more to incompetence than explicit malice/hypocrisy, but the results are much the same. People are getting really disgusted; and given how well governed the state was in the last half century, it all seems so gratuitous. Oh, and did I mention that the legislators have decided to keep on paying their own salaries, even though everyone else is fired, arguing that since they are the ones who have to work on a solution they need to continue to get paid so that they can resolve the mess. That's the sort of thing that will really rile Minnesotans up, I hope, and I don't think they even realize how self-serving it sounds.
re: the Greeks
Hi, Glenn- I also liked The Economist take: Greece can't pay its debts;
the US won't pay its debts. There's a big difference between the two. My
question: if you are the international bond market, which would you be more
wary of?
the US won't pay its debts. There's a big difference between the two. My
question: if you are the international bond market, which would you be more
wary of?
re: re: the Greeks
Both. I am a bit surprised that rates on US bonds are so low. True, not alot of other good options, but there are other options.
The greeks
Dear Tiger,
You asked my/Europe's opinion on the Greek crisis. Oh, for that glorious day when my opinion IS Europe's opinion!
The best comment I found on the bailout/austerity package is this:
“This is not a program to salvage the economy, it’s a program for pillage
before bankruptcy,” said Alexis Tsipras, head of the small opposition Left
Coalition.
He is right, of course. As anyone with sense can see, a Greek default is ineventible.
You asked my/Europe's opinion on the Greek crisis. Oh, for that glorious day when my opinion IS Europe's opinion!
The best comment I found on the bailout/austerity package is this:
“This is not a program to salvage the economy, it’s a program for pillage
before bankruptcy,” said Alexis Tsipras, head of the small opposition Left
Coalition.
He is right, of course. As anyone with sense can see, a Greek default is ineventible.
Monday, July 4, 2011
Arizona Shaman
The arizona shaman, surrounded by his cactus garden, cactus-baked and dried to the bone. Skin deep brown and deep wrinkled from years in the sun. A white man by birth, a cactus man by habit, belonging to no tribe but his own.
His wisdon is lies, but oh so convincing.
His wisdon is lies, but oh so convincing.
Heros and role models
My cousin died this year. Pancratic cancer. 3 months from diagnosis to dead. Just long enough to complete the journey.
He was older, just enough older that he had solved the problems and confusions of whatever age I was at, yet close enough in age that I could see in him how I wanted to be. Distant enough that I could not see his faults. I always looked up to him. Then, as adults, we lost touch.
He is the first of my generation to go on. As always, he is a pathfinder. If there was another side, he would be there waiting for me, still smiling with his gentle strength. This though gives me peace.
He was older, just enough older that he had solved the problems and confusions of whatever age I was at, yet close enough in age that I could see in him how I wanted to be. Distant enough that I could not see his faults. I always looked up to him. Then, as adults, we lost touch.
He is the first of my generation to go on. As always, he is a pathfinder. If there was another side, he would be there waiting for me, still smiling with his gentle strength. This though gives me peace.
Violence in books and movies
We have violence in books and movies because most of us will never kill, never find ourselves waking up one day with no memory of our past but discovering we are super-assassins trained at a CIA black-ops facility...
No, most of us experience this only vicariously, returning on Monday to our mundane jobs, filled with the vague dread that our hours and days are slipping away into mediocrity, never realizing that we of the day to day plodding are the real heros. The action stars may save civilization, but we are civilization, building it day by day, hour by hour, breath by breath
No, most of us experience this only vicariously, returning on Monday to our mundane jobs, filled with the vague dread that our hours and days are slipping away into mediocrity, never realizing that we of the day to day plodding are the real heros. The action stars may save civilization, but we are civilization, building it day by day, hour by hour, breath by breath
Thoughts from my sister
My sister sent the following, which she wrote after Katherine Jerrerts Schori visited her classroom:
K. Schori is the 26th Presiding Bishop of the Episcopal Church of the United States, and a Swede
Fri. June 24, 2011
Katherine Jefferts Schori (sp)
There are 2 Creation Stories. The first holds that Creation is good, and that after humans were created it was very good. The second tends to focus on what went wrong. Another Creation begins when Jesus is baptized and God pronounces, “This is my beloved Son in whom I am well pleased. “ Then Jesus begins his ministry.
What if we were to hear those words spoken by God to us?
KJS invites us to hear the words, and meditate upon them.
“You are my Beloved, in whom I am well pleased.”
She invites us to close our eyes and receive that message. She joins us in meditation and it fills the room with blessing.
The group processes with partners. Some noteworthy comments:
Teaching style models that of inquiry method. Present lesson (use story), spend time working with the lesson, reflect in small groups, then as a whole group. Did Jesus use this same approach?
Find the essentiality of the lesson. This is reflected in the workshop style of teaching in Fountas and Pinnell.
She presents the question to the entire group: “What if we approached everyone we encounter with the belief that they are beloved? What would happen?”
Observer changes outcome,
Vision of future: from Isaiah, everyone eats, no war
Start at vision and work backwards.
Accept what you see.
K. Schori is the 26th Presiding Bishop of the Episcopal Church of the United States, and a Swede
Fri. June 24, 2011
Katherine Jefferts Schori (sp)
There are 2 Creation Stories. The first holds that Creation is good, and that after humans were created it was very good. The second tends to focus on what went wrong. Another Creation begins when Jesus is baptized and God pronounces, “This is my beloved Son in whom I am well pleased. “ Then Jesus begins his ministry.
What if we were to hear those words spoken by God to us?
KJS invites us to hear the words, and meditate upon them.
“You are my Beloved, in whom I am well pleased.”
She invites us to close our eyes and receive that message. She joins us in meditation and it fills the room with blessing.
The group processes with partners. Some noteworthy comments:
Teaching style models that of inquiry method. Present lesson (use story), spend time working with the lesson, reflect in small groups, then as a whole group. Did Jesus use this same approach?
Find the essentiality of the lesson. This is reflected in the workshop style of teaching in Fountas and Pinnell.
She presents the question to the entire group: “What if we approached everyone we encounter with the belief that they are beloved? What would happen?”
Observer changes outcome,
Vision of future: from Isaiah, everyone eats, no war
Start at vision and work backwards.
Accept what you see.
Motivational coffee machine
Good morning, sir! You are our hero! We all look up to you! Here is your espresso!
--and other uses of AI.
See also this month's WIRED new vocab-- gladvertizing, mood-aware personal advertising. Now available with your morning cup of joe
--and other uses of AI.
See also this month's WIRED new vocab-- gladvertizing, mood-aware personal advertising. Now available with your morning cup of joe
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Finding different epochs in a DPM
A DPM is like a collection of poisson processes. We have data drawn from these processes which also contains covariates, such as case/control, age, date.
Use a random forest to fit the counting processes.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
State of Wonder by Ann Patchett
The review in Time mag writes that this is a retelling of heart of darkness.
A woman ethnobiologist has found a fertility drug, deep in the Amazon, and then goes feral.
She doesn't respect indigenous healers, referring to their methods as "poorly recorded gossip handed down ... from people who knew very little to people who know even less."
And here I was today, thinking of what might make a good story idea. "The Honeybadger Diaries."
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Gold standard or competing currency?
A quote with no easy source:
When the same medium is used both as a store of value and as a medium of exchange, the result is an ineventable conflict between the interests of debters and savers.
...
In modern America, most people are both, with their savings equal to their debts, giving a net worth of zero.
The question on the title asks if the US should return to the gold standard OR allow a second gold-backed currency, which would be legal tender.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Tim Wu
Came up with the phrase net neutrality, consultant.
Starts with the story of a guy at Bell Labs, who invented magnetic recording. ATT squelched out because a survey showed that 2/3rd of phone calls were "indecent". They were afraid that people would stop using the phone if they thought they were being recorded.
Will the internet stay free? reviews history of other communication breakthroughs, all of which end up with a monopoly.
Positives: internet was designed with freedom in mind.
Negatives: economic principles and human nature. Most people want the bell curve, no one likes dissenters.
He seemed strangely unprepared for the questions. Most seemed obvious given his talk, but there was no evidence that he had rehearsed answers. In many cases it didn't even seem he had thought of the question.
He was carefully neutral on everything he said. Not strongly against anything. Not a boat rocker. Very concious that if he seemed anti business, or anti any one business, he would catch hell.
The New North-- Laurence Smith 03/24/2011
His focus is on the arctic, which he sees as a developing region as it is supposed to hold a large portion of the world's remaining undiscovered oil and gas.
The melting of the polar ice cap will make accessing these easier-- but only in some ways. Melting ice opens up the ocean, but closes the ice roads built across the tundra.
Global trends he considers-- urbanizing and growing and aging populations. The growing demand for electricity.
The melting of the polar ice cap will make accessing these easier-- but only in some ways. Melting ice opens up the ocean, but closes the ice roads built across the tundra.
Global trends he considers-- urbanizing and growing and aging populations. The growing demand for electricity.
Monday, June 20, 2011
E-publishing
Article in Herald Trib on Amanda Hocking, who is the first major breakthrough author from self/e-publishing. She writes pulp fiction fantasy romance (her description, she has no pretension). The books take about a year to develop in her head and 4 weeks to write.
She studied books in bookstores to learn what worked, what sold. She priced her books low: under 3 bucks.She used Amazon and smashwords.
My idea: I want to write pop science books.
More from John Gray
Define progress as cumulative and irreversible change. This is clearly possible in science and technology, but he maintains it is not so in politics and ethics. Evidence: a US president condoning torture.
Diversity
Inspiration comes from the Wired article on the angels share, which commented that fungus live in every environment, no matter how hostile or artificial.
Thesis: single celled or simple life can maintain more diversity than larger forms, with extreme minority variants able to maintain the barest existence up until they happen upon favorable environments, such as a whiskey warehouse.
The general theme of preserving a few outliers just in case. Most of the time they are not god for much, but every now and then they save the species/civilization.
The crazyness of the war on drugs
Right, how is it that a country founded on the pursuit of happiness is so focused on a war on drugs?
More Sustainability
John Gray RSA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_N._Gray
More Sustainability. Doesn't this sound good? Don't you want it? Don't you want more of it?
Expands on his philosophy that "volition, and hence morality, as an illusion, and portrays humanity as a ravenous species engaged in wiping out other forms of life. Gray writes that 'humans ... cannot destroy the Earth, but they can easily wreck the environment that sustains them" -- from the Wikipedia article
Not every human culture has been built on capitalism. But is there another way?
What about science as the new magic
"The core of the belief in progress is that human values and goals converge in parallel with our increasing knowledge... Science made possible the technologies that powered the industrial revolution. In the twentieth century, these technologies were used to implement state terror and genocide on an unprecedented scale. Ethics and politics do not advance in line with the growth of knowledge — not even in the long run."
Which reminds me of my earlier thoughts on The Lord of the Rings as the death song of the agrarian society. Harry Potter is the new king. I just noticed that HP has few animals, and even fewer nature references. Yes, tons of magical creatures, but there is such a strong urban basis. And, as I have remarked earlier, HP is strictly visual, while LOTR is auditory, a collection of the best folk tales and characters of 500 years of civilization.
Which brought me to wonder what the folk tales of the new world should be, when everything is in the grid.
Today is rainy.
And the song for the day. Landslide, by Fleetwood Mac, whose only good album (Rumors) was written as their marriages were falling apart. (ok, Tusk was also pretty good).
"Oh, mirror in the sky, what is love?
Can the child within my heart rise above?
Can I sail thru the changing ocean tides?
Can I handle the seasons of my life?"
see also Dreams
"Now here I go again, I see the crystal visions
I keep my visions to myself
It's only me who wants to wrap around your dreams and
Have you any dreams you'd like to sell?
Dreams of Loneliness like a heartbeat, drives you mad
In the stillness of remembering
What you had
and what you lost
And what you had
Oh what you lost.
...
When the rain washes you clean you'll know
You'll know.."
Did I mention that it has been raining (and cold) for the last 2 weeeks?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_N._Gray
More Sustainability. Doesn't this sound good? Don't you want it? Don't you want more of it?
Expands on his philosophy that "volition, and hence morality, as an illusion, and portrays humanity as a ravenous species engaged in wiping out other forms of life. Gray writes that 'humans ... cannot destroy the Earth, but they can easily wreck the environment that sustains them" -- from the Wikipedia article
Not every human culture has been built on capitalism. But is there another way?
What about science as the new magic
"The core of the belief in progress is that human values and goals converge in parallel with our increasing knowledge... Science made possible the technologies that powered the industrial revolution. In the twentieth century, these technologies were used to implement state terror and genocide on an unprecedented scale. Ethics and politics do not advance in line with the growth of knowledge — not even in the long run."
Which reminds me of my earlier thoughts on The Lord of the Rings as the death song of the agrarian society. Harry Potter is the new king. I just noticed that HP has few animals, and even fewer nature references. Yes, tons of magical creatures, but there is such a strong urban basis. And, as I have remarked earlier, HP is strictly visual, while LOTR is auditory, a collection of the best folk tales and characters of 500 years of civilization.
Which brought me to wonder what the folk tales of the new world should be, when everything is in the grid.
Today is rainy.
And the song for the day. Landslide, by Fleetwood Mac, whose only good album (Rumors) was written as their marriages were falling apart. (ok, Tusk was also pretty good).
"Oh, mirror in the sky, what is love?
Can the child within my heart rise above?
Can I sail thru the changing ocean tides?
Can I handle the seasons of my life?"
see also Dreams
"Now here I go again, I see the crystal visions
I keep my visions to myself
It's only me who wants to wrap around your dreams and
Have you any dreams you'd like to sell?
Dreams of Loneliness like a heartbeat, drives you mad
In the stillness of remembering
What you had
and what you lost
And what you had
Oh what you lost.
...
When the rain washes you clean you'll know
You'll know.."
Did I mention that it has been raining (and cold) for the last 2 weeeks?
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Torula
A new word!
From the Wired article, "The Angel's Share":
Torula is a junk genus, now seen less as a proper taxonomical designation and more as a drawer that old-time researcher threw brownish black fungi into when they didn't fit anywhere else.
Let's make this a generic term-- we need a catch-all box.
From: wisegeek.com
Torula is a yeast which is formally known as Candida utilis. Torula ... preferring cellulose-rich substrates such as wood, leaf litter, and paper pulp. In several regions, people deliberately cultivate this yeast for industrial purposes, usually on a substrate of wood pulp which makes the yeast easy to extract.
This yeast can be used to provide dietary supplementation, especially in food for cats and dogs, where its high protein content is very useful. It is also used in the production of food for farmed fish and other food products. The slightly meaty flavor of this yeast, which lacks the bitterness many people associate with yeasts, causes some companies to use it as a flavor enhancer in some foods, especially packaged foods.
From the Wired article, "The Angel's Share":
Torula is a junk genus, now seen less as a proper taxonomical designation and more as a drawer that old-time researcher threw brownish black fungi into when they didn't fit anywhere else.
Let's make this a generic term-- we need a catch-all box.
From: wisegeek.com
Torula is a yeast which is formally known as Candida utilis. Torula ... preferring cellulose-rich substrates such as wood, leaf litter, and paper pulp. In several regions, people deliberately cultivate this yeast for industrial purposes, usually on a substrate of wood pulp which makes the yeast easy to extract.
This yeast can be used to provide dietary supplementation, especially in food for cats and dogs, where its high protein content is very useful. It is also used in the production of food for farmed fish and other food products. The slightly meaty flavor of this yeast, which lacks the bitterness many people associate with yeasts, causes some companies to use it as a flavor enhancer in some foods, especially packaged foods.
apropos partisanship
A related email from my friend Lars which arrived at about the same time:
it fascinates me how Republicans think the US consitution is a libertarian policy document. It sets up a system, a procedure, for making laws, with elections and checks and balances etc., it doesn't prescribe economic policy. One of the arguments of Republicans is, so if the federal govt. can mandate health insurance, it can also mandate you to buy broccoli. Well, that's up the the people, try running on that platform! The point is, it's the American people who decide if they want certain policies or not. I agree, the ACA is messy and imperfect but that's because the Republicans refused to cooperate, putting party before country the decided to sabotage anything Obama did because they knew "if he's successful on this - and on the economy -, we've lost the WH for a couple of decades." The ACA is very close to Bob Dole's plan back in the early 90'ies, which was backed by the Heritage Foundation and several Rep. Senators as an alternative to "Hillary care," so it's not like this is something they're really against. It's just that if Obama is for it, it must be un-American. Personally, I think a single-payer system, with death panels, is the way to go.
http://www.slate.com/id/2283415/pagenum/all/#p2
One of the commenters argued my point exactly:
"One hugely important realization you have to make is just because it something is a bad idea, doesn't mean it is unconstitutional."
it fascinates me how Republicans think the US consitution is a libertarian policy document. It sets up a system, a procedure, for making laws, with elections and checks and balances etc., it doesn't prescribe economic policy. One of the arguments of Republicans is, so if the federal govt. can mandate health insurance, it can also mandate you to buy broccoli. Well, that's up the the people, try running on that platform! The point is, it's the American people who decide if they want certain policies or not. I agree, the ACA is messy and imperfect but that's because the Republicans refused to cooperate, putting party before country the decided to sabotage anything Obama did because they knew "if he's successful on this - and on the economy -, we've lost the WH for a couple of decades." The ACA is very close to Bob Dole's plan back in the early 90'ies, which was backed by the Heritage Foundation and several Rep. Senators as an alternative to "Hillary care," so it's not like this is something they're really against. It's just that if Obama is for it, it must be un-American. Personally, I think a single-payer system, with death panels, is the way to go.
http://www.slate.com/id/2283415/pagenum/all/#p2
One of the commenters argued my point exactly:
"One hugely important realization you have to make is just because it something is a bad idea, doesn't mean it is unconstitutional."
re: Partisanship is destroying the US
Hi Glenn -- I think he has tail & dog mixed up. The problem is structure, which rewards partisanship and punishes those who appeal to the middle. My take is that in the state (MN) we have gone from dysfunctional to toxic, as the government is due to shut down completely come July 1 because there is no budget agreement. The national scene is not quite that bad, but not far behind. My larger concern is that if reform within the system were possible, we wouldn't have already reached the present state.
Love, Dad
Love, Dad
Partisanship is destroying the US
nteresting article in the Atlantic on what is wrong with US politics, by Mickey Edwards (represented Oklahoma in the House for 16 years). He says the problem boils down to partisanship, which is enforced by parts of the political structure. Now we all know this, and his solution isn't anything new, but it is nice to see it in one place.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2011/07/how-to-turn-republicans-and-democrats-into-americans/8521/
His solution is
Open primaries
Redistricting by independent nonpartisan commissions
Allow members of any party to offer amendments to any house bill
Change leadership structure of congressional committees to give the minority party a voice
Choose committee staff based on professional qualification, not party loyatly
My thoughts are that the first two points are the most important.
Happy weekend to you!
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2011/07/how-to-turn-republicans-and-democrats-into-americans/8521/
His solution is
Open primaries
Redistricting by independent nonpartisan commissions
Allow members of any party to offer amendments to any house bill
Change leadership structure of congressional committees to give the minority party a voice
Choose committee staff based on professional qualification, not party loyatly
My thoughts are that the first two points are the most important.
Happy weekend to you!
Phylogenetics
Analogy between a preferential attachment graph and a DPM. Is there a 2 parameter version of the graph?
Friday, June 17, 2011
Branko Milanovic-- Global Income Inequality
He is an economist with the world bank
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Branko_Milanovi%C4%87
Looks at income distributions within nations, between nations, and globally. Gini curves and things like that.
The poorest in the US are in the upper 62% worldwide
Brazil spans the range, their poorest are as poor as anyone on earth (bottom 2%), while their richest are as rich as anyone on earth.
Social mobility is more common in countries with less income inequalities.
The central american countries have equal income distributions, while Asian countries do not.
Where you are born is a stronger determinant than your social class.
Ok, and some points he forgets to mention. The world has more weath today than ever before (by today meaning the last 15 years, today today seems a bit down from a year ago). So of course there is more room for inequality. In a substinance agricultural society, it is really really hard to get more than a 5:1 income range, since the level of economic production is so limited.
Also, no discussion on wether poor today is better than middle income 100 years ago.
But an interesting comment from the audience, that in extreme rural villiages (like 1 week walk from anywhere else) people are happy and don't think they are poor, even though they are not far above the substinance level. Relative to what they know, they are doing well.
This principle of course extends, and, while he did not mention it, many other have said that this awareness is some of what lay behind the Arab Spring.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Branko_Milanovi%C4%87
Looks at income distributions within nations, between nations, and globally. Gini curves and things like that.
The poorest in the US are in the upper 62% worldwide
Brazil spans the range, their poorest are as poor as anyone on earth (bottom 2%), while their richest are as rich as anyone on earth.
Social mobility is more common in countries with less income inequalities.
The central american countries have equal income distributions, while Asian countries do not.
Where you are born is a stronger determinant than your social class.
Ok, and some points he forgets to mention. The world has more weath today than ever before (by today meaning the last 15 years, today today seems a bit down from a year ago). So of course there is more room for inequality. In a substinance agricultural society, it is really really hard to get more than a 5:1 income range, since the level of economic production is so limited.
Also, no discussion on wether poor today is better than middle income 100 years ago.
But an interesting comment from the audience, that in extreme rural villiages (like 1 week walk from anywhere else) people are happy and don't think they are poor, even though they are not far above the substinance level. Relative to what they know, they are doing well.
This principle of course extends, and, while he did not mention it, many other have said that this awareness is some of what lay behind the Arab Spring.
The meaning of life's milestones-- Robert Rowland Smith (28 Jan 2011)
Starts with the meaning of life, for which he quotes 4 main philosophical themes:
1) no meaning (sarte)
2) perfecting the self (humanism)
3) service to others
4) service to God
Then he looks at some life milestones (birth, school, etc) and offers some tidbits of wisdom on each.
He presents well. Lots of dry humor ("At the end we will talk about death, just to leave things on a high note"). Great voice, pauses, diction.
He lost me, however, when he posited the mind/body duality. This is so overwhelmingly false. He especially claimed that the body moves foward in time, you cannot be younger nor older than you are, but that the mind does not. Yet he has his own counter-example, which was that a young man can easily imagine where he is going, but a middle-aged man somehow can not-- at that age, one has a brighter picture of how one used to be. Poppycock, of course, but were it true, it would show that the mind also is fixed in time.
Which it is. The mind is an organ, like any other, which develops and ages. A 40 year old brain is physically very different than a 20 year old brain, and yes, Dorothy, this DOES change the way we think.
1) no meaning (sarte)
2) perfecting the self (humanism)
3) service to others
4) service to God
Then he looks at some life milestones (birth, school, etc) and offers some tidbits of wisdom on each.
He presents well. Lots of dry humor ("At the end we will talk about death, just to leave things on a high note"). Great voice, pauses, diction.
He lost me, however, when he posited the mind/body duality. This is so overwhelmingly false. He especially claimed that the body moves foward in time, you cannot be younger nor older than you are, but that the mind does not. Yet he has his own counter-example, which was that a young man can easily imagine where he is going, but a middle-aged man somehow can not-- at that age, one has a brighter picture of how one used to be. Poppycock, of course, but were it true, it would show that the mind also is fixed in time.
Which it is. The mind is an organ, like any other, which develops and ages. A 40 year old brain is physically very different than a 20 year old brain, and yes, Dorothy, this DOES change the way we think.
cover your tail
Article in Forbes on Spitznagel's fund (Universa), which buys extreme out of the money options. These are cheap, so he can afford to have many of them go bad. But also, because they are cheap, when they go well, they go really, really well.
Article is here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2011/0627/money-guide-11-spitznagel-black-swan-cnbc-protect-tail_print.html
"With Santa Monica's trendy beaches a block away, Mark Spitznagel and three fellow traders spend their days placing a couple dozen bets that a disastrous event will rock equity markets or cause inflation to soar. On roughly 95 trades out of 100 they lose money"
Article is here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2011/0627/money-guide-11-spitznagel-black-swan-cnbc-protect-tail_print.html
"With Santa Monica's trendy beaches a block away, Mark Spitznagel and three fellow traders spend their days placing a couple dozen bets that a disastrous event will rock equity markets or cause inflation to soar. On roughly 95 trades out of 100 they lose money"
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